Testing shelled corn for aflatoxin, Part II: modeling the observed distribution of aflatoxin test results.

The suitability of several theoretical distributions to predict the observed distribution of aflatoxin test results in shelled corn was investigated. Fifteen positively skewed theoretical distributions were each fitted to 18 empirical distributions of aflatoxin test results for shelled corn. The compound gamma distribution was selected to model aflatoxin test results for shelled corn. The method of moments technique was chosen to estimate the parameters of the compound gamma distribution. Mathematical expressions were developed to calculate the parameters of the compound gamma distribution for any lot aflatoxin concentration and test procedure. Observed acceptance probabilities were compared to operating characteristic curves predicted from the compound gamma distribution, and all 18 observed acceptance probabilities were found to lie within a 95% confidence band. The parameters of compound gamma were used to calculate the fraction of aflatoxin-contaminated kernels in contaminated lots. At 20 ppb, it was estimated that about 6 in 10,000 kernels are contaminated.