A new palliative prognostic score: a first step for the staging of terminally ill cancer patients. Italian Multicenter and Study Group on Palliative Care.

In recent years, extensive research has been performed to identify prognostic factors that predict survival in terminally ill cancer patients. This study describes the construction of a simple prognostic score based on factors identified in a prospective multicenter study of 519 patients with a median survival of 32 days. An exponential multiple regression model was adopted to evaluate the joint effect of some clinico-biological variables on survival. From an initial model containing 36 variables, a final parsimonious model was obtained by means of a backward selection procedure. The Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP Score) is based on the final model and includes the following variables: Clinical Prediction of Survival (CPS), Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), anorexia, dyspnea, total white blood count (WBC) and lymphocyte percentage. A numerical score was given to each variable, based on the relative weight of the independent prognostic significance shown by each single category in the multivariate analysis. The sum of the single scores gives the overall PaP Score for each patient and was used to subdivide the study population into three groups, each with a different probability of survival at 30 days: (1) group A: probability of survival at 30 days > 70%, with patient score < or = 5.5; (2) group B: probability of survival at 30 days 30-70%, with patient score 5.6-11.0; and (3) group C: probability of survival at 30 days < 30%, with patient score > 11.0. Using this method, 178/519 (34.3%) patients were classified in risk group A, 205 (39.5%) patients were in risk group B, and 136 (26.2%) patients were in risk group C. The patients classified in the three risk groups had a very different survival experience (logrank = 294.8, P < 0.001), with a median survival of 64 days for group A, 32 days for group B, and 11 days for group C. The PaP Score based on simple clinical and biohumoral variables proved to be statistically significant in a multivariate analysis. The score is valid in this population (training set). An independent validation on another patient series (testing set) is required and is the object of a companion paper.