Impact of renal cadaveric transplantation on survival in end-stage renal failure: evidence for reduced mortality risk compared with hemodialysis during long-term follow-up.

Despite a superior quality of life and a favorable cost effectiveness, it has not been well established thus far whether renal cadaveric transplantation contributes to superior survival probability of end-stage renal disease patients in Europe, because the mortality rate on dialysis is lower compared with the United States. This analysis was undertaken to compare the mortality of wait-listed patients and transplant recipients during long-term follow-up, including the possibility of a retransplant in a single-center study. The study cohort included 309 consecutive patients, ages 17 to 72 yr, being registered on the waiting list of the Renal Transplantation Center of Mannheim since the initiation of the transplantation program on June 3, 1989. Follow-up was terminated on September 30, 1997, with a mean of 4.15 yr. A total of 144 renal cadaveric transplants (four retransplants) was performed during the follow-up period. A Cox regression model considering the time-dependent exposure to the different therapy modalities was applied for statistical analysis. Patients being removed from the waiting list or coming back to dialysis after transplantation were censored at time of withdrawal or graft failure. Transplantation resulted in a lower hazard ratio, which was 0.36 (95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 0.87) when the hazard of the wait-listed group was taken as 1.00. The underlying incidence rate of death was 0.026 per patient-year (0.032 on dialysis versus 0.016 with functioning graft). Performing the evaluation on an intention-to-treat basis without censoring the lower risk of the transplanted group was still pronounced according to a hazard ratio of 0.44 (95% confidence interval, 0.22 to 0.89). Thus, patients receiving a renal cadaveric transplantation have a substantial survival advantage over corresponding end-stage renal disease patients on the waiting list even in the setting of a single transplantation center where mortality on regular dialysis therapy was comparatively low.