Predicting drug use: application of behavioral theories of choice.

The current study sought to test the utility of Herrnstein's (1970) matching law in predicting drug use occurring in the natural environment. Participants were 206 college students. Behavioral allocation was measured across two concurrently available sets of activities: those engaged in while using or under the influence of drugs and/or alcohol (drug related) and those engaged in when drug free. Results from regression analyses indicate that predictions of drug use are improved with the addition of reinforcement received from drug-free activities, which enters the model with a negative coefficient value. The addition of a reinforcement ratio, based on matching law equations, also accounted for unique variance. Results demonstrate the utility of applying behavioral theories of choice to drug use and highlight the importance of viewing behaviors within their broader environmental context.