OBJECTIVE: This analysis examines 1-year transition probabilities and baseline predictors for suicidal behaviors in young adolescents. METHOD: Adolescents from a two-stage, community-based longitudinal study were classified into suicidal behavior categories (attempt, plan, ideation, and none) for baseline and follow-up years. Transition probabilities for movement among categories were calculated, and polytomous logistic regression analysis was used to examine predictors of suicidal behaviors. RESULTS: Among those with no suicidal behaviors at baseline, 1-year incidence rates were 1.3% for attempts and 1.7% each for plans and ideation. Increasing family cohesion was protective for suicide attempts (odds ratio [OR] = 0.9). Female subjects were more likely than males to report plans (OR = 8.9) and ideation (OR = 4.1). Increasing impulsivity (OR = 2.3), prior suicidal behavior (OR = 10.6), and undesirable life events (OR = 1.1) were significant predictors of plans. CONCLUSIONS: While there are a number of predictors of suicidal behaviors, the false-positive rate is high. Focusing on proximal risk factors, particularly stressors in adolescent development, may overlook the fundamental role of underlying mental disorder and familial factors--both biological and environmental. Suicide and suicidal behaviors are the result of a constellation of adverse factors requiring a range of interventions for prevention.
OBJECTIVE: This analysis examines 1-year transition probabilities and baseline predictors for suicidal behaviors in young adolescents. METHOD: Adolescents from a two-stage, community-based longitudinal study were classified into suicidal behavior categories (attempt, plan, ideation, and none) for baseline and follow-up years. Transition probabilities for movement among categories were calculated, and polytomous logistic regression analysis was used to examine predictors of suicidal behaviors. RESULTS: Among those with no suicidal behaviors at baseline, 1-year incidence rates were 1.3% for attempts and 1.7% each for plans and ideation. Increasing family cohesion was protective for suicide attempts (odds ratio [OR] = 0.9). Female subjects were more likely than males to report plans (OR = 8.9) and ideation (OR = 4.1). Increasing impulsivity (OR = 2.3), prior suicidal behavior (OR = 10.6), and undesirable life events (OR = 1.1) were significant predictors of plans. CONCLUSIONS: While there are a number of predictors of suicidal behaviors, the false-positive rate is high. Focusing on proximal risk factors, particularly stressors in adolescent development, may overlook the fundamental role of underlying mental disorder and familial factors--both biological and environmental. Suicide and suicidal behaviors are the result of a constellation of adverse factors requiring a range of interventions for prevention.
Authors: Peter A Wyman; C Hendricks Brown; Mark LoMurray; Karen Schmeelk-Cone; Mariya Petrova; Qin Yu; Erin Walsh; Xin Tu; Wei Wang Journal: Am J Public Health Date: 2010-07-15 Impact factor: 9.308
Authors: Michelle A Scott; Holly C Wilcox; Irvin Sam Schonfeld; Mark Davies; Roger C Hicks; J Blake Turner; David Shaffer Journal: Am J Public Health Date: 2008-12-04 Impact factor: 9.308
Authors: Deborah M Stone; Feijun Luo; Lijing Ouyang; Caroline Lippy; Marci F Hertz; Alex E Crosby Journal: Am J Public Health Date: 2013-12-12 Impact factor: 9.308