Increasing incidence of myelodysplastic syndromes: real or fictitious?

Over the past 10-20 years, there has been a growing interest in the myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Due to difficulties of diagnosis, classification and case recording, the epidemiological features of MDS are still poorly defined. Recently, a number of cancer registries have published data on the regional occurrence of MDS, suggesting that MDS are much more common than previously thought. The crude incidence of MDS in these studies was 3.5-12.6 per 100,000 population per year. In people over the age of 70 years, incidence rates varied between 15 and 50 per 100,000 per year. Contrary to the assumption of most hematologists, cancer surveys usually failed to demonstrate a rising incidence of MDS. In those studies showing a significant increase in MDS, the rising number of cases was probably due to increased physician awareness and extended use of invasive diagnostic procedures in elderly people. Differences in incidence figures between regional studies may be attributed to several causes, including regional variations in disease incidence, small and ill-defined reference populations, bias due to patient referral patterns, varying intensity of diagnostic procedures and different observation periods. Because of the paucity of clinical symptoms and insignificance of morphological bone marrow changes particularly in early stage MDS, the currently available incidence figures are likely to underestimate the true incidence of MDS. Large-scale epidemiological studies are required for obtaining truly representative statistics on the incidence and prevalence of the MDS. In industrialized countries, a dramatic increase in these disorders can be expected over the next few decades due to the 'greying' of the population.