Long-term predictive value of a single cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA PCR assay for CMV disease in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients.

Universal prophylaxis with oral ganciclovir is not cost-effective for the prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease in human immunodeficiency virus infection. For a preemptive strategy to be considered, patients at highest risk for CMV disease need to be easily and accurately identified. In this study, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of a single CMV DNA PCR assay for the subsequent development of CMV disease were 0.75, 0.89, 0.75, and 0.89, respectively.