Predictors of hospital acquired heel pressure ulcers.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate predictors of hospital acquired heel pressure ulcers. A prospective cohort study of hospitalized patients was conducted (N = 291). Subjects were enrolled by one team and followed by another team that was blind to initial assessment information. Initial assessment included demographics, Braden scale, and other variables found in the first study to be statistically significant. Ongoing evaluation involved heel assessment only. Univariate analysis yielded 15 statistically significant variables. Using multivariate logistic regression, subject's with a potential problem on the Braden Friction and Shear item (p = 0.01) and who were more frequently moist on the Braden Moisture item (p = 0.007) were more likely to develop heel ulcers (chi-square 30.52, df 3, p = 0.00001). Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for the Braden scale and multiple other scoring systems. ROC curves were virtually identical using all new scoring systems as compared to the original Braden scale. No new scoring system was identified that led to a clinically significant improvement in sensitivity/specificity over the total Braden scale. While not perfect, the Braden scale may currently be the best predictive tool for heel pressure ulcer development.