Identification of patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease at highest risk for end-stage renal disease.

To identify those potential factors that, early in the course of disease, mark a population of patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) who have worse renal survival, survival analysis and risk ratio calculation for 1215 ADPKD patients were performed. Survival times were calculated as time to dialysis, transplantation, or death. Risk ratios were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Three hundred eighty-eight patients entered end-stage renal disease and 205 patients died. ADPKD2 subjects had longer renal survival than ADPKD1 subjects (median survival, 68 versus 53 yr; P < 0.0005; risk ratio, 2.5). Women had significantly better renal survival than men (56 versus 52 yr; P < 0.0001; risk ratio, 1.6). Subjects who were diagnosed before age 30 and those who developed hypertension before age 35 had worse renal survival than those subjects who were diagnosed after age 30 or those who remained normotensive after age 35, respectively (age of diagnosis: 49 versus 59 yr; P < 0.0001; risk ratio, 3.2; hypertension: 51 versus 65 yr; P < 0.0001; risk ratio, 4.4). Similarly, those who had an episode of gross hematuria before age 30 had a worse renal outcome than those who did not (49 versus 59 yr; P < 0.0001; risk ratio, 2.6). We have also calculated risk ratios for a combined model. When therapeutic interventions become available for this disease, these populations with high risk ratios should be considered for such interventions.