Predictors of residency performance: a follow-up study.

In a 1990 study we investigated resident applicant characteristics associated with successful matching into otolaryngology. Of the 175 applicants studied, 87 matched, for a 49.7% success rate. Successful matching was much more likely for applicants with a history of excellent academic achievement in medical school. Of the 88 applicants who did not match during the year that was originally studied, 30 matched to otolaryngology in subsequent years. Of the 58 who never matched in otolaryngology, there is no evidence of board certification for 30. Of the other 28, 12 are board certified in anesthesia; 3 in radiology; 2 each in family medicine, internal medicine, general surgery, psychiatry, and physical medicine, and rehabilitation; and 1 each in pathology, emergency medicine, and dermatology. Of the total of 117 who matched in otolaryngology, 109 began residency training, and 107 finished otolaryngology training. Program directors answered questionnaires about 100 of 107 of these residents, detailing aspects of residency performance. The only correlation found between a highly satisfactory residency performance and characteristics that could be evaluated at the time of interviewing for residency positions was with excellent academic performance in medical school.