Genetic drift can dominate short-term human immunodeficiency virus type 1 nef quasispecies evolution in vivo.

The evolution of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 nef quasispecies in a patient clonally infected with a contaminated batch of blood clotting factor IX was monitored. nef sequences were derived at 11, 25, and 41 months postinfection from infected peripheral blood mononuclear cells after molecular cloning of PCR-amplified proviral DNA. The phylogenetic relationships among a total of 41 informative sequences were established by split decomposition analysis and used as a basis to establish a substitution matrix and to score synonymous (s) and nonsynonymous (ns) substitutions. The number of observed in-phase stop codons within the nef sequences was comparable to that expected on a random basis. Similarly, the numbers of observed s and ns substitutions did not differ significantly from expected values. No codon position was preferentially mutated. The maximum sequence divergence increased in a linear manner, with approximately 4.4 nucleotide and approximately 3.2 amino acid changes per year. It appears that stochastic processes strongly influence short-term HIV nef quasispecies evolution in vivo.