The Prognostic Scale by Strauss and Carpenter and its validity.

The Prognostic Scale by Strauss and Carpenter (1974) is thoroughly analysed and its predictive value is compared with other predictors, such as symptomatology, premorbid adjustment and social disability. A sample of 138 first-hospitalized schizophrenic patients serve as database. The total days of stationary treatment, the number of rehospitalizations, a complex criterion regarding the course of illness and the extent of social impairment were selected as outcome criteria. The period of time allowing for predictions was 36 months after index episode. A factor analysis yields results indicating that the Prognostic Scale can be divided into two subscales, namely the "social functioning in the previous twelve months" and the "extent of handicap by psychiatric symptoms". With respect to prognostic aspects it is the first subscale which proves to be especially valuable.