Heart transplant candidates at high risk can be identified at the time of initial evaluation.

The increasing discrepancy between the numbers of patients selected for cardiac transplantation and the available donor organs requires validation of markers of high risk at the time of initial evaluation that may help to determine which patients profit from aggressive therapy. We retrospectively examined the case records of 91 heart transplant candidates selected out of a total of 140 consecutive patients referred for evaluation. Of these 91 patients, 48 were transplanted during follow-up. Of the remaining 43 patients, 25 died after a mean survival time of 1.6 +/- 2.5 months. The causes of death were pump failure in 18 (72%) and sudden cardiac death in 7 (28%). Multivariate analysis identified 4 out of 26 parameters at initial evaluation that distinguished the 25 nonsurvivors from the 18 survivors. These were: mean arterial pressure (P = 0.03), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (P = 0.002), mean pulmonary artery pressure (P = 0.001), and fractional shortening (P = 0.007). The mode of death could not be predicted. We conclude that there are prognostic markers at initial evaluation that allow more restrictive selection of patients for cardiac transplantation and mechanical bridging.