Constraints on allele size at microsatellite loci: implications for genetic differentiation.

Microsatellites are promising genetic markers for studying the demographic structure and phylogenetic history of populations. We present theoretical arguments indicating that the usefulness of microsatellite data for these purposes may be limited to a short time perspective and to relatively small populations. The evolution of selectively neutral markers is governed by the interaction of mutation and random genetic drift. Mutation pressure has the inherent tendency to shift different populations to the same distribution of alleles. Hence, mutation pressure is a homogenizing force, and population divergence is caused by random genetic drift. In case of allozymes or sequence data, the diversifying effect of drift is typically orders of magnitude larger than the homogenizing effect of mutation pressure. By a simple model, we demonstrate that the situation may be different for microsatellites where mutation rates are high and the range of alleles is limited. With the help of computer simulations, we investigate to what extent genetic distance measures applied to microsatellite data can nevertheless yield useful estimators for phylogenetic relationships or demographic parameters. We show that predictions based on microsatellite data are quite reliable in small populations, but that already in moderately sized populations the danger of misinterpretation is substantial.