Physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling of chemical mixtures and possible applications in risk assessment.

Human exposure to chemicals, be it environmental or occupational, is rarely, if ever, limited to a single chemical. Therefore, it is essential that we consider multiple chemical effects and interactions in our risk assessment process. However, with the almost infinitely large number of chemical mixtures in the environment, systematic studies of the toxicology of these chemical mixtures with conventional methodologies and approaches are impossible because of the immense resources and unrealistically long durations required. Thus, the development of predictive and alternative toxicology method is imperative. In order to have a reasonable chance to deal with the complex issue of toxicology of chemical mixtures, we believe that the following concepts must be considered: (1) the exploitation of recent advances in computational technology; (2) the utilization of mathematical/statistical modeling; (3) coupling computer modeling with very focused, mechanistically based, and short-term toxicology studies. Our approach is, therefore, the utilization of physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PB-PK/PD) modeling, coupled with very focused, model-directed toxicology experiments as well as other statistical/mathematical modeling such as isobolographic analysis and response surface methodology. Tissue dosimetry at the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic levels is achievable with simple and complex, but chemically defined, mixtures. Our long-term goal is to formulate innovative risk assessment methodologies for chemical mixtures. In this presentation, one of our specific research projects is described: PB-PK/PD modeling of toxicologic interactions between Kepone and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) and the coupling of Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of acute toxicity.