Temporal analysis of the October 1989 proton flare using computerized anatomical models.

The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50% less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.