Logistic regression model to estimate the risk of unbalanced offspring in reciprocal translocations.

The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of viable unbalanced offspring for a parental carrier of reciprocal translocation. On a large computerized database of reciprocal translocations we used logistic regression to model this risk. The status of the progeny is the outcome variable. Explanatory covariates are cytogenetic characteristics of the translocation, age and sex of the parental carrier, and potential viability of the gametes. The results obtained by the logistic model demonstrate the important role of certain variables such as the sex of the parental carrier and the R band length of the translocated segments. Within the group of lower risk (risk of viable unbalanced offspring less than 5%), 97% of the individuals are correctly classified with this model. For this group, the choice prenatal diagnosis can be best discussed by considering both the risk for viable unbalanced offspring and the risk of induced abortion following prenatal diagnosis.