Screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in north east Scotland shows fall in incidence and mortality from invasive cancer with concomitant rise in preinvasive disease.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia on the incidence of and mortality from invasive squamous cell carcinoma of cervix in north east Scotland and to discover why cases of invasive cancer still occur.
DESIGN: (a) Analysis of data on cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia obtained from the cytology data bank; (b) analysis of data on 612 women presenting with invasive squamous cancer during 1968-91, obtained from cancer registry and hospital records; (c) analysis of death rates obtained from the registrar general's (Scotland) annual reports, the Information Services Division of the Home and Health Department (Scotland), and local records for 1974-91; (d) case-control studies on 282 cases of invasive cancer and 108 deaths which occurred in 1982-91. Cases were matched with two controls both for age and for having a negative smear test result at the time of presentation of the case.
SETTING: North east Scotland (Grampian region, Orkney, and Shetland).
SUBJECTS: Women (n = 306,608) who had had cervical smear tests between 1960 and 1991.
RESULTS: There had been a substantial increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III since 1982. The incidence of invasive cancer has fallen since the start of screening in 1960, the fall occurring mainly in the well screened age group 40-69 years. There was a rise in women aged under 40 and over 70. Women with invasive disease seen between 1982 and 1991 mostly presented at stage I. Of these, half were unscreened, one third were poorly screened, 11% were found in retrospect to have had abnormal cells, 3% had recurrence of disease after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III, and 3% were lost to follow up. Death rates had fallen, most noticeably in women aged 45-64, who had had the opportunity to be screened and rescreened. There was a disturbing rise in deaths among women under 45. Most deaths (65%) occurred in unscreened women. Case-control studies showed that the longer the time and absence of a smear test before presentation the higher was the risk of invasive cancer and of death.
CONCLUSIONS: Screening has been effective in reducing the incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in north east Scotland. Most cases and deaths occurred in unscreened women or in those who had had few smears at long intervals. An increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III in women screened for the first time occurred during 1982-91.