Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 mRNA expression in peripheral blood cells predicts disease progression independently of the numbers of CD4+ lymphocytes.

To address the significance of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replication in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), we have used reverse transcriptase-initiated PCR to measure HIV-1 mRNA expression in PBMC specimens collected from a cohort of HIV-infected individuals during a long-term prospective study. We found dramatic differences in HIV mRNA expression among individuals with very similar clinical and laboratory indices, and this variation strongly correlated with the future course of the disease. No evidence of viral replication was detected in PBMCs from asymptomatic individuals who, thereafter, had normal levels of CD4+ cells for at least 5 years. Irrespective of whether the CD4+ cell numbers were normal at the time of sampling, abundant expression of HIV-1 mRNA in PBMCs predicted accelerated disease progression within the next 2 years. Thus, independently of what may be the rate of HIV replication in other viral reservoirs, such as lymphatic tissue, the amount of HIV mRNA in PBMCs appears to reflect the subsequent development of HIV disease. We have also used the reverse transcriptase-initiated PCR assay to demonstrate a transient response to 3'-azido-3'-deoxythymidine treatment. Determination of HIV-1 mRNA expression in the PBMCs of infected individuals could, therefore, have significant clinical utility as a prognostic indicator and as a means to guiding and monitoring antiviral therapies.