Guidelines, enthusiasms, uncertainty, and the limits to purchasing.

Recently government ministers have set out their vision of the future of purchasing. Ineffective treatments will be discarded and purchasing will be based on guidelines or protocols rather than activity. But have the advocates of this approach considered all the issues? This paper examines the challenges of balancing the desire for protocol based uniformity with the needs of individual patients, explores the extent to which existing purchasing structures can support this process, and questions whether such moves will actually lead to reduced costs. In each case it is concluded that oversimplistic analyses are likely to be misleading and that much of the current debate fails to recognise the complexity of health care.