A statistical model estimating the number of African-American physicians in the United States.

Using mark-recaptured methodology and network sampling procedures, a statistical model was developed to estimate the number of African-American physicians in the United States. A sample (stratified by geographic region, medical specialty and an age surrogate) was selected from the National Medical Association's Masterfile of Black Physicians (NMAMBP). Respondents were asked to list the names of five black physicians who resided or practiced in their immediate geographic area. Data also were collected about citizenry as well as other demographic and professional information. The NMAMBP was used mathematically as a "marked" group that could then be "recaptured," allowing mark-recapture methodology to be used as the nucleus of the statistical estimation procedure. The results revealed that in 1991, the total number of US African-American physicians (black US citizens) was estimated to be 16,282 with a conservative standard error of 764 and an approximate 95% confidence interval, yielding a range of 14,754 to 17,810 physicians. This estimate is from 17% to about 32% lower than the 21,538 black doctors reported by the 1990 Bureau of the Census and has important implications for attempts to reform the health-care system and policies designed to produce more African-American physicians.