The decline and rise of the medical school applicant pool.

The authors characterize the demographic changes that transpired with the decline and rise of the medical school applicant pool over the past decade, and describe the variations in academic antecedents, attrition, and graduation rates of students matriculated during that time. Data over the ten-year cycle, derived from the AAMC's Student and Applicant Information Management System (SAIMS), were examined in the context of published education and employment statistics. The contraction and expansion of the applicant pool were related to changes in the number and pattern of undergraduate majors and to changes in the employment conditions for college-educated youth. Furthermore, a significant part of the variations in size of the applicant pool is an artifact of changes in the number of repeat applications. Matriculants' pre-medical grades and MCAT scores dropped slightly during the period of applicant decline, and rebounded as admission committees were able to exercise greater selection when the pool expanded. The attrition of medical students rose and fell during this time, but the changes were small and of little discrete influence on graduation rates during the period. The downturn and rebound in applications over the past decade appear to be more related to cycles in the employment market for college graduates than to applicants' perceptions of unfavorable/favorable conditions in medical education and practice.