Neurohumoral measurements as indicators of long-term prognosis after acute myocardial infarction.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic accuracy and usefulness of neurohumoral determination as a risk stratification tool after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) by comparing the long-term prognostic value of subacute neurohumoral measurements with other established indicators of adverse outcome. The study included 145 patients with documented AMI. During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, 30 cardiovascular and 6 noncardiovascular deaths occurred. By univariate analysis, plasma atrial natriuretic factor (ANF) and endothelin levels were strongly related to long-term cardiovascular mortality. In multivariate models, both peptides added prognostic information to that obtained from clinical evaluation, but not to that obtained from left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Estimation of the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve showed comparable prognostic accuracy for LVEF (0.7788), plasma ANF (0.7795), plasma endothelin (0.7493), and Killip classification (0.8203), meaning that for all these prognostic indicators, a randomly selected patient from the group of patients dying will have a test value larger than that of a randomly selected patient from the group of surviving patients 75% to 82% of the time. The clinical usefulness of neurohumoral determination in routine risk stratification after AMI appears to be limited since no additional prognostic information to that provided by objective evaluation of LV systolic function is obtained. However, in patients for whom objective assessment of LV performance is not readily available, measurement of plasma ANF and endothelin may be helpful in identifying asymptomatic patients at risk for cardiac death.