Elephant seal genetic variation and the use of simulation models to investigate historical population bottlenecks.

Because the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostrus) was heavily exploited during the 19th century, it experienced an extreme population bottleneck. Since then, under legislative protection in the United States and Mexico, northern elephant seals have recovered dramatically in number, although their genomic diversity was greatly reduced, apparently as a consequence of the bottleneck. In this study we investigated DNA sequence diversity in two mtDNA regions (the control region and 16S RNA) and found low genetic variation in the northern elephant seal: there were only two control region haplotypes (sequence difference = 1%), which was consistent with an extreme founder event in the recent history of the northern species. We also reaffirmed the lack of allozyme diversity in this species. In contrast, the southern elephant seal (M. leonina), which though similarly exploited never fell below 1,000 animals, had 23 control region mtDNA haplotypes (average sequence difference = 2.3%). To investigate the extent of the founder event in the northern elephant seal we devised a simulation model based on extensive demographic data. This allowed a statistical analysis of the likely outcome of bottlenecks of different size and duration. Given these historical data, our results indicate (within 95% confidence) a bottleneck of less than 30 seals and 20-year duration, or, if hunting was the primary pressure on the population, a single-year bottleneck of less than 20 seals.