Estimating the survival time of knee replacement.

A method of analysing the results of knee replacement operations, which makes it possible to estimate the annual failure rate and the proportion of implants which will survive successfully for 10 years, is applied to the post-operative data for 365 operations, using Freeman, Sheehan and Manchester prostheses, carried out from 1972 to 1980 at Harlow Wood Orthopaedic Hospital. Two criteria of success are defined. On both, and for all prostheses, the annual failure rate is found to be much lower in the first two than in the later years. Thus, account must be taken of the period since operation if the success of different prostheses is to be validly compared. This is not possible using conventional statistical methods. But significant trends in annual failure rates and significant differences between prostheses can only be identified from samples larger than are usually available in individual series. Hence it will be necessary for many centres to co-operate in pooling results if reliable conclusions are to be reached and valid comparisons made.