Multiple regression analysis of risk factors for cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality in Busselton, Western Australia--13-year study.

The mortality of 1564 Busselton subjects has been studied from 1966-79 to determine whether risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) showed any change in emphasis compared with the Framingham Population Study of 20 yr previously. The Busselton analysis used subjects free of probable and suspect coronary heart disease at onset. In men aged 40-59, systolic blood pressure (SBP), forced expiratory volume (FEV), and serum cholesterol levels were significant independent determining variables for CVD mortality and cholesterol for CHD mortality, with SBP being related to CVD in men aged 60-74 yr. In women, there were few indicators of future vascular risk with no significant determining variable for CVD and CHD in 40-59 yr olds, but blood glucose and FEV were significant risk factors for CVD in women aged 60-74 yr. Cholesterol was unrelated to mortality in women but showed negative relationship with cancer in 60-74 yr old men. In total mortality, smoking in men and women, and obesity in women were significant risk factors; 1 hr serum insulin had a negative relationship in men aged 40-59 yr, and a stronger positive relationship in men aged 60-74 yr, but this may have been due to the close negative association of the variable with body size (i.e. height). More studies are required to ascertain whether glucose and insulin have an aetiological role in vascular disease.