A biological marker model for predicting disease transitions.

For patients with chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), the effect of elevated blood levels of adenosine deaminase (ADA) is studied as a marker for transitions from stable disease to blast crisis and then to death. Data in the form of snapshots over time, with day, state of disease, and ADA level, are analyzed for 55 patients. A simple three-state Markov model with one-way transition probabilities dependent on ADA is used to determine if the marker has a significant effect on the prediction of changes from stable disease to blast crisis.