Indicators of surgical risk and clinical judgement.

A number of indicators of surgical risk were measured in 218 patients awaiting major gastrointestinal surgery. The indices chosen had been used by others to identify high risk patients and they were compared with each other and with two clinical assessments of risk, one by the operating surgeon and the other by an independent clinician who performed a complete physical examination. Anthropometric indices did not pick out patients who were significantly at high risk but the plasma proteins (albumin, pre-albumin, transferrin) identified subgroups of high risk patients, about a third of whom developed major postoperative complications. Although some nutritional indicators which use plasma proteins for the computation selected patients who were significantly more at risk, some (20-30 per cent) of the patients with low levels of plasma proteins (particularly those who were septic) did not have depleted fat or muscle protein stores. Although the surgeons were able correctly to identify only a small number of very high risk patients the results showed that a carefully performed clinical examination was able to do this as effectively as the plasma proteins. It is suggested that something more than a global assessment by the operating surgeon is required to identify high risk patients. A careful assessment of medical risk noting in particular cardiorespiratory disease and pre-existing sepsis, as well as nutritional state, is as effective as any other currently used indicator of risk.