Long-term sclerotherapy of bleeding esophageal varices in patients with liver cirrhosis. An evaluation of mortality and rebleeding risk factors.

Ninety-six liver cirrhosis patients with bleeding esophageal varices receiving long-term sclerotherapy with the flexible endoscope were studied prospectively to analyze mortality and rebleeding risk factors. The difference in the 1-year survival rates of Child's groups A (100%) and B (82%) versus Child's C patients (38%) was highly significant (p less than 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that, as single factors, serum bilirubin, grade of ascites, and prothrombin time and, as a combination, the four variables bilirubin, ascites, aspartate aminotransferase, and age distinguished best between survivors and non-survivors during the first 6 months after inclusion in the study. For the separation of rebleeders and non-rebleeders during the first 2 months, prothrombin time and grade of ascites gave the best distinction. Thus, cirrhotics with variceal hemorrhage, ascites, jaundice, and a prolonged prothrombin time remain a high-risk group also with long-term sclerotherapy.