On the PAM matrix model of protein evolution.

The internal consistency of the PAM matrix model of protein evolution is here investigated. The 1 PAM matrix has been constructed from amino acid replacements observed in closely related sequences. Such replacements are of two types, those that do not require an intermediate amino acid replacement and those that do. The second type of replacement must generally be produced by a repetition of the first. This allows data on the first type to be used in predicting data on the second type so that some elements of the 1 PAM matrix may be used to predict others. A discrepancy of more than two orders of magnitude is found between the predictions and the data when this is carried out. This is partly accounted for by an error in constructing the matrix. However, it also seems necessary that the basic model be modified. Several possibilities are considered. One of these is to incorporate a site-dependent spectrum of mutabilities associated with each amino acid.