Predicting academic performance at a predominantly black medical school.

A study was conducted by the authors that examined the validity of the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), undergraduate grade-point average (GPA), and "competitiveness" of undergraduate college in predicting the performance of students at a predominantly black college of medicine. The performance measures used in the analysis consisted of course grades in all four years of medical school and scores on both Part I and Part II of the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) examinations. The predictive validities of the MCAT scores and undergraduate GPAs were found to be similar to those revealed in earlier studies conducted at predominantly white schools. Two exceptions to these similarities were found. First, the MCAT scores at the black school had a somewhat lower validity in predicting NBME examination scores than was the case at the other schools. Second, of the six MCAT subtest scores, Skills Analysis: Reading had the highest correlation with first-year grades, in contrast to results at the other schools. No differences between men and women were found in the validity of MCAT scores and the GPA. The competitiveness of the undergraduate college attended was found to contribute significantly to the prediction of all measures of medical school performance.