The future role of foreign medical graduates in U.S. medical practice: projections into the 1990s.

Projections of the effect of actual and hypothesized declines in the proportion of foreign medical graduates (FMGs) in residency training on the future distribution of physicians are explored. We find potential proportionate declines in the eventual location of physicians in rural areas and small towns in the North Central regions, and in solo and partnership arrangements in the Northeast, North Central, and Southern regions. Reductions in FMG house officers now could also lead to an increased proportionate presence of physicians in subspecialty practices in the largest U.S. cities. These changes might happen despite the current perception that there is a "surplus" of physicians.