Surplus or shortage? Unraveling the physician supply conundrum.

Although the supply of physicians in the United States has doubled during the past 20 years, there is still disagreement as to whether we currently have or should expect a significant surplus of physicians. The evidence suggests that despite the rapid expansion in the pool of available physicians, serious physician shortages persist for certain rural populations, ethnic and occupational groups, and other medically disadvantaged segments of the population. Medical students' declining interest in rural practice and primary care specialties suggests that problems of geographic and specialty maldistribution may worsen despite a rising population of physicians. It is unlikely that a significant physician surplus will develop unless there is a conscious attempt to limit the proportion of national wealth expended on medical care. Pockets of shortage can be reduced by broadening the availability of health insurance, lessening large income disparities between different specialties, changing the way teaching institutions are reimbursed for their training costs, and supporting direct governmental service programs such as the National Health Service Corps.