Andrew Kraftson1, Anne H Cain-Nielsen2, Amy Lockwood3, Yingying Luo4, Colleen Buda3, Corey Lager5, Nazanene H Esfandiari4, Elif Oral4, Oliver A Varban6. 1. Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Metabolism, Endocrinology & Diabetes, University of Michigan, 24 Frank Lloyd Wright Drive, Suite G 1500, Ann Arbor, MI, 48105, USA. Andrewkr@med.umich.edu. 2. Center for Healthcare Outcomes and Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. 3. Department of Surgery, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. 4. Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Metabolism, Endocrinology & Diabetes, University of Michigan, 24 Frank Lloyd Wright Drive, Suite G 1500, Ann Arbor, MI, 48105, USA. 5. Bronson Diabetes and Endocrinology Center, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. 6. Henry Ford Health, Detroit, MI, USA.
Abstract
CONTEXT: Weight loss after bariatric surgery can be accurately predicted using an outcomes calculator; however, outliers exist that do not meet the 1 year post-surgery weight projections. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to determine how soon after surgery these outliers can be identified. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study. SETTING, PATIENTS, AND INTERVENTION: Using a bariatric surgery outcomes calculator formulated by the Michigan Bariatric Surgery Collaborative (MBSC), predicted weight loss at 1 year post-surgery was calculated on all patients who underwent primary bariatric surgery at a single-center academic institution between 2006 and 2015 who also had a documented 1-year follow-up weight (n = 1050). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weight loss curves were compared between high, low, and non-outliers as defined by their observed-to-expected (O:E) weight loss ratio based on total body weight loss (TBWL) %. RESULTS: Mean predicted weight loss for the study group was 39.1 ± 9.9 kg, while mean actual weight loss was 39.7 ± 17.1 kg resulting in a mean O:E 1.01 (± 0.35). Based on analysis of the O:E ratios at 1 year post-surgery, the study group was sub-classified. Low outliers (n = 188, O:E 0.51) had significantly lower weight loss at 2 months (13.1% vs 15.6% and 16.5% TBWL, p < 0. 001) and at 6 months (19% vs 26% and 30% TBWL, p < 0.001) when compared to non-outliers (n = 638, O:E 1.00) and high outliers (n = 224, O:E 1.46), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Weight loss curves based on individually calculated outcomes can help identify low outliers for additional interventions as early as 2 months after bariatric surgery.
CONTEXT: Weight loss after bariatric surgery can be accurately predicted using an outcomes calculator; however, outliers exist that do not meet the 1 year post-surgery weight projections. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to determine how soon after surgery these outliers can be identified. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study. SETTING, PATIENTS, AND INTERVENTION: Using a bariatric surgery outcomes calculator formulated by the Michigan Bariatric Surgery Collaborative (MBSC), predicted weight loss at 1 year post-surgery was calculated on all patients who underwent primary bariatric surgery at a single-center academic institution between 2006 and 2015 who also had a documented 1-year follow-up weight (n = 1050). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weight loss curves were compared between high, low, and non-outliers as defined by their observed-to-expected (O:E) weight loss ratio based on total body weight loss (TBWL) %. RESULTS: Mean predicted weight loss for the study group was 39.1 ± 9.9 kg, while mean actual weight loss was 39.7 ± 17.1 kg resulting in a mean O:E 1.01 (± 0.35). Based on analysis of the O:E ratios at 1 year post-surgery, the study group was sub-classified. Low outliers (n = 188, O:E 0.51) had significantly lower weight loss at 2 months (13.1% vs 15.6% and 16.5% TBWL, p < 0. 001) and at 6 months (19% vs 26% and 30% TBWL, p < 0.001) when compared to non-outliers (n = 638, O:E 1.00) and high outliers (n = 224, O:E 1.46), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Weight loss curves based on individually calculated outcomes can help identify low outliers for additional interventions as early as 2 months after bariatric surgery.
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