| Literature DB >> 36223335 |
Rajiv Bhatia1, Isabella Sledge2, Stefan Baral3.
Abstract
Systematic approaches to epidemiologic data collection are critical for informing pandemic responses, providing information for the targeting and timing of mitigations, for judging the efficacy and efficiency of alternative response strategies, and for conducting real-world impact assessments. Here, we report on a scoping study to assess the completeness of epidemiological data available for COVID-19 pandemic management in the United States, enumerating authoritative US government estimates of parameters of infectious transmission, infection severity, and disease burden and characterizing the extent and scope of US public health affiliated epidemiological investigations published through November 2021. While we found authoritative estimates for most expected transmission and disease severity parameters, some were lacking, and others had significant uncertainties. Moreover, most transmission parameters were not validated domestically or re-assessed over the course of the pandemic. Publicly available disease surveillance measures did grow appreciably in scope and resolution over time; however, their resolution with regards to specific populations and exposure settings remained limited. We identified 283 published epidemiological reports authored by investigators affiliated with U.S. governmental public health entities. Most reported on descriptive studies. Published analytic studies did not appear to fully respond to knowledge gaps or to provide systematic evidence to support, evaluate or tailor community mitigation strategies. The existence of epidemiological data gaps 18 months after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the need for more timely standardization of data collection practices and for anticipatory research priorities and protocols for emerging infectious disease epidemics.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 36223335 PMCID: PMC9555641 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248793
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.752
Epidemiological data required for managing emerging respiratory virus epidemics.
| Measure | Definition | Information value | Typical source |
|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||
| Basic reproductive number | The expected number of secondary cases directly generated by one case | Potential speed of epidemic growth | Calculated from contact rate, secondary infection risk, and infectious period or from the growth rate of the early disease incidence curve |
| Growth rate | Change per unit time (acceleration or deceleration) of the incidence rate | Current trajectory of epidemic growth | Population disease monitoring |
| Susceptible population | Proportion of the population who have immunity to the infection or to disease due to natural or acquired immunity | Targeting control measures | Studies of immunity such as seroprevalence of antibodies |
| Incubation period | Interval between infection and the development of symptoms | Timeframe for prevention of secondary infection | Transmission studies |
| Duration of infectiousness | Viral load and duration in symptomatic and asymptomatic people | Timeframe for prevention of secondary infection | Transmission studies |
| Serial interval | Interval between development of symptoms in a case and an infected contact | Necessary for capturing the R0 | Transmission studies |
| Pre-symptomatic transmission | Proportion of infections spread by persons who appear well but are infected and later develop symptoms | Timeframe for prevention of secondary infection | Transmission studies |
| Secondary infection risk (SIR or alternatively, secondary attack rate) | Proportion of exposed people who become ill in a setting (household, school workplace) | Targeting control measures | Transmission studies |
|
| |||
| Symptomatic fraction | Proportion of infected people who become symptomatically ill | Estimating disease burdens and adopting a proportional response | Household or contact tracing transmission studies |
| Case hospitalization and fatality ratios | Ratio of identified cases to hospitalized and fatal cases | Estimating disease burdens and adopting a proportional response | Population surveillance |
| Cohort studies | |||
| Large transmission studies | |||
| Infection hospitalization and fatality ratios | Ratio of estimated infections to hospitalized and fatal infections | Estimating disease burdens and adopting a proportional response | Reported hospital data. Death records |
| Severity risk factors | Demographic, clinical, occupational, social, and environmental risk factors affecting vulnerability to severe disease outcomes | Targeting prevention measures | Case control studies |
| Syndromic surveillance | |||
|
| |||
| Incidence rate | Number of new cases of illness, hospitalization or death in a population per unit time | Is the disease accelerating or slowing down and where | Syndromic surveillance |
| Serial prevalence studies | |||
| Disease hospitalization rates | |||
| Disease mortality rates | |||
| Point or period prevalence | Proportion of the population that is a current case a point or period in time | Current level of active infection and transmission | Symptom and test-based surveys |
| Community attack rate / cumulative incidence | Number of new cases of disease during specified time interval | Population disease burden & remaining population susceptible | Cohort studies, statistical estimation |
USCDC estimates for COVID-19 selected infection transmission and severity parameters.
| May 2020 | July 2020 | Sept 2020 | Mar 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| Reproductive number | 2.0 (2.0–3.0) | 2.5 (2.0–4.0) | 2.5 (2.0–4.0) | 2.5 (2.0–4.0) |
| Susceptibility | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Mean incubation period | 6 days | 6 days | 6 days | 6 days |
| Mean serial interval | 6 days | 6 days | 6 days | 6 days |
| Percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset | 40% | 50% (35–70) | 50% (30–70) | 50% (30–70) |
| Percent of infections that are asymptomatic | 35% (20–50) | 40% (10–70) | 40% (10–70) | 30% (15–70) |
| Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals | 100% (50–100) | 75% (20–100) | 75% (25–100) | 75% (25–100) |
| Secondary Attack Rate | Not Estimated | Not Estimated | Not Estimated | Not Estimated |
|
| ||||
| Symptomatic Case Hospitalization Ratio | 0–49 y 0.017 | |||
| 50–64 y 0.045 | ||||
| 65+ y: 0.074 | ||||
| Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio | 0–49 y 0.0005 | |||
| 50–64 y 0.002 | ||||
| 65+ y: 0.013 | ||||
| Infection fatality ratio (%) | 0.065 | 0–19 y: 0.003 | 0–17 y: 0.002 | |
| 20–49 y: 0.02 | 18–49 y: 0.05 | |||
| 50–69 y: 0.5 | 50–64 y: 0.6 | |||
| 70+ y: 5.4 | 65+ y: 0.09 | |||
| Hospital fatality ratio (%) | 18–49 years: 2 | 18–49 years: 2.4 | 0–17 y: 0.7 | |
| 50–64 years: 9.8 | 50–64 years: 10 | 18–49 y: 2.1 | ||
| ≥65 years: 28 | ≥65 years: 26.6 | 50–64 y: 7.9 | ||
| 65+ y: 18.8 |
Scope of US CDC publicly reported Covid-19 disease surveillance data.
| Nov 2020 | Nov 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surveillance Measure | National | State | County | National | State | County |
| Surveillance Case incidence | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Sex | X | X | X | X | ||
| Age group | X | X | X | X | ||
| Race/ ethnicity | X | X | X | X | ||
| Nursing home resident / staff | X | X | ||||
| Health care personnel | X | X | ||||
| Fraction of positive COVID-19 laboratory tests | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Share of emergency department visits for Influenza-like-illness | X | |||||
| Share of emergency department visits for Covid-like-illness | X | |||||
| Share of emergency department visits for confirmed COVID-19 | X | X | ||||
| COVID-19 test positive new hospital admissions rate | X | X | X | X | ||
| Age group | X | X | X | |||
| Mortality due to COVID-19 | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Sex | X | X | X | X | ||
| Age group | X | X | X | X | ||
| Race/ ethnicity | X | X | X | X | ||
| Nursing home resident / staff | X | X | ||||
| Health care personnel | X | X | ||||
| Infection-induced antibody seroprevalence | X | X | X | |||
| Sex | X | |||||
| Age group | X | |||||
| Combined infection and vaccination-induced antibody seroprevalence | X | X | ||||
| Sex | X | |||||
| Age group | X | |||||
| Race/ ethnicity | X | |||||
| Estimated cumulative Incidence of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths | ||||||
| Infections by age | X | |||||
| Symptomatic Infections by age | X | |||||
| Hospitalizations by age | X | |||||
| Deaths by age | X | |||||
Fig 1PRISMA 2020 flow diagram for identification, screening, and inclusion of studies.
Epidemiologic studies on COVID-19 transmission, infection severity, disease burden with US governmental public health authors affiliations published through November 2021.
| Analytic Reports | Descriptive Reports | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2021 | Total | 2020 | 2021 | Total | Total | |
|
| 47 | 56 | 103 | 115 | 65 | 180 | 283 |
|
| |||||||
| Federal | 13 | 19 | 32 | 24 | 16 | 40 | 72 |
| Federal and State or Local | 20 | 22 | 42 | 75 | 35 | 110 | 152 |
| State or Local | 14 | 15 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 30 | 59 |
|
| |||||||
| Clinical Infectious Diseases | 8 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| Emerging Infectious Diseases | 1 | 15 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 32 |
| MMWR | 27 | 17 | 44 | 85 | 45 | 130 | 174 |
| Other Journals | 11 | 22 | 33 | 18 | 10 | 28 | 61 |
|
| |||||||
| Jan–Mar 2020 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 2 | 30 | 38 |
| April–Sept 2020 | 36 | 28 | 64 | 82 | 15 | 97 | 161 |
| Oct 2020–July 2021 | 4 | 24 | 28 | 5 | 42 | 47 | 75 |
| August–Nov 2021 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | ||
|
| |||||||
| Case-control | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Case series, cluster, or outbreak | 3 | 3 | 84 | 41 | 125 | 128 | |
| Cross-sectional | 20 | 21 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 43 | |
| Ecologic | 10 | 15 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 26 | |
| Incidence | 0 | 31 | 20 | 51 | 51 | ||
| Prospective | 6 | 2 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Retrospective | 6 | 17 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 24 | |
|
| |||||||
| Active surveillance program | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 17 | 22 |
| Administrative data records | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |||
| Original field data | 16 | 6 | 22 | 52 | 25 | 77 | 99 |
| Medical records | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| Passive surveillance program | 15 | 20 | 35 | 40 | 32 | 72 | 107 |
| Serosurvey | 7 | 13 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 21 | |
| Questionnaire survey | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 10 | |
| Vital statistics records | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
|
| |||||||
| Assisted living facility | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Childcare facility | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| College or university | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| Community | 31 | 43 | 74 | 63 | 35 | 98 | 172 |
| Congregate living facilities (multiple) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||
| Correctional or detention facility | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 14 | |
| Gym or fitness facility | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Healthcare facility | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| Homeless Facility | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Military facility | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Other Workplace | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| Primary or secondary school | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Skilled nursing facility | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 25 |
| Social gathering or event | 0 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 13 | ||
|
| |||||||
| Armed Forces | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Children and Adolescents | 1 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 29 |
| College students | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| General population | 29 | 37 | 66 | 59 | 37 | 96 | 162 |
| Healthcare Workers or First Responders | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 16 | |
| Homeless Individuals or Facility Staff | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| LCTF residents and staff | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 23 | 28 |
| Other Occupations | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| Pregnant women | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Prison inmates and staff | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 14 | |
|
| |||||||
| Secondary Attack Ratio | 6 | 3 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Serial Interval / Generation Time | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Growth Rate | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
|
| |||||||
| Any Incidence Measure | 9 | 16 | 25 | 35 | 27 | 62 | 87 |
| Infection Incidence | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Case Incidence | 2 | 2 | 27 | 16 | 43 | 45 | |
| ED Visit Incidence | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Hospitalization Incidence | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 11 | |
| Mortality Incidence | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 12 | |
| Seroprevalence | 8 | 12 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 22 | |
| Excess Deaths | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
|
| |||||||
| Any Infection Predictor | 32 | 34 | 66 | 66 | |||
| Age or Sex | 15 | 14 | 29 | 29 | |||
| Race, Ethnicity, or Income | 10 | 11 | 21 | 21 | |||
| Co-morbidity | 5 | 3 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Behavioral | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 | |||
| Occupational | 7 | 10 | 17 | 17 | |||
| Environmental | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Residential | 8 | 9 | 17 | 17 | |||
| Prior Infection | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Geospatial | 7 | 9 | 16 | 16 | |||
|
| |||||||
| Symptomatic Fraction | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Case Fatality Ratio | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Infection Hospitalization Ratio | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Infection Fatality Ratio | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Hospital Fatality Ratio | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
|
| |||||||
| Any Severity Predictor | 10 | 13 | 23 | 23 | |||
| Age or Sex | 4 | 7 | 11 | 11 | |||
| Race, Ethnicity, or Income | 4 | 6 | 10 | 10 | |||
| Co-morbidity | 8 | 8 | 16 | 16 | |||
| Behavioral | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| SARS-CoV-2 Variant | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Geospatial | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
Examples of research questions relevant to US COVID-19 policy debates.
| What is the optimum duration of isolation and quarantine? |
| Are isolation and quarantine effective mitigation strategies, given asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission? |
| What is the relative share of disease attributable to different community settings (households, workplaces, retail, transport, health care, schools) |
| How effective are masks and face coverings for preventing transmission in different settings |
| Are safety measures in essential workplaces and public transport adequate to prevent occupational transmission? |
| What are health costs and benefits of closing schools? |
| How well does recovery from infection protect against subsequent infection and severe disease? |