| Literature DB >> 36157457 |
Jing Liu1, Hongjiao Kong2, Xiaona Yu1, Mengge Zhou1, Xiaoyang Liu1, Xinmi Liu1, Jianrui Zhang1, Yanli Liu1, Shanshan Wu1, Yichun Guan1.
Abstract
Objective: To explore the risk factors of ectopic pregnancy after in vitro fertilization.Entities:
Keywords: IVF; ROC; clinical prediction model; ectopic pregnancy; risk factors
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 36157457 PMCID: PMC9493494 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2022.895939
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) ISSN: 1664-2392 Impact factor: 6.055
Figure 1Flow chart of Study selection.
Baseline characteristics of the patients.
| IUP (n = 12552) | EP (n = 214) | P-value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female age (years) | 30.77 ± 4.61 | 31.10 ± 4.77 | 0.299 |
| Infertility duration (years) | 3.41 ± 2.75 | 3.64 ± 3.20 | 0.232 |
| Endometrial thickness prior to ET (mm) | 10.33 ± 2.16 | 9.72 ± 2.18 | < 0.001 |
| BMI (kg/m2) | 23.59 ± 3.23 | 23.48 ± 3.21 | 0.633 |
| Infertility type | 0.114 | ||
| primary | 5844 (46.56%) | 88 (41.12%) | |
| secondary | 6708 (53.44%) | 126 (58.88%) | |
| Year of treatment | 0.56 | ||
| 2016 | 2381 (18.97%) | 39 (18.22%) | |
| 2017 | 2860 (22.79%) | 41 (19.16%) | |
| 2018 | 3193 (25.44%) | 64 (29.91%) | |
| 2019 | 3730 (29.72%) | 64 (29.91%) | |
| 2020 | 388 (3.09%) | 6 (2.80%) | |
| Caesarean section | 0.324 | ||
| NO | 11918 (94.95%) | 200 (93.46%) | |
| YES | 634 (5.05%) | 14 (6.54%) | |
| Previous EP, n (%) | 0.452 | ||
| NO | 12438 (99.09%) | 211 (98.60%) | |
| YES | 114 (0.91%) | 3 (1.40%) | |
| Curettage of the uterine cavity | 0.467 | ||
| NO | 12521 (99.75%) | 214 (100.00%) | |
| YES | 31 (0.25%) | 0 (0.00%) | |
| Type of infertility | 0.007 | ||
| Non-tubal factor | 7813 (62.25%) | 114 (53.27%) | |
| Tubal factor | 4739 (37.75%) | 100 (46.73%) | |
| Fresh or frozen embryo transfer | 0.52 | ||
| Fresh | 5791 (46.14%) | 94 (43.93%) | |
| Frozen | 6761 (53.86%) | 120 (56.07%) | |
| Embryo stage at ET | <0.001 | ||
| cleavage stage | 6666 (53.11%) | 161 (75.23%) | |
| blastocyst stage | 5886 (46.89%) | 53 (24.77%) | |
| Embryo quality | 0.523 | ||
| Poor | 5766 (45.94%) | 103 (48.13%) | |
| Good | 6786 (54.06%) | 111 (51.87%) | |
| No. of embryos transferred | <0.001 | ||
| single embryo transfer | 4806 (38.29%) | 53 (24.77%) | |
| double embryo transfer | 7746 (61.71%) | 161 (75.23%) |
EP, ectopic pregnancy; IUP, BMI, body mass index.
Figure 2Nonlinear relationship between EMT and EP. *Adjusted factors: Female age, Infertility duration, BMI, Infertility type, Year of treatment, Cesarean section, Previous EP, Curettage of the uterine cavity, Type of infertility, Fresh or frozen embryo transfer, Embryo stage at ET, Embryo quality, No. of embryos transferred.
Threshold effect analysis of endometrial thickness on EP.
| OR 95% CI |
| |
|---|---|---|
| Model I | ||
| Linear effect | 0.84 (0.78, 0.90) | <0.0001 |
| Model II | ||
| turning point | 7.6, 12.1 | |
| < 7.6mm | 0.92 (0.52, 1.64) | 0.7853 |
| 7.6-12.1mm | 0.75 (0.66, 0.84) | <0.0001 |
| > 12.1mm | 1.00 (0.77, 1.31) | 0.997 |
| Logarithmic likelihood ratio test | 0.010 | |
Model was adjusted for female age, infertility duration, BMI, infertility type, year of treatment, cesarean section, previous EP, curettage of the uterine cavity, type of infertility, fresh or frozen embryo transfer, embryo stage at ET, embryo quality, number of embryos transferred.
Figure 3Forest plot of subgroup analyses analysis of EP risk factors.
Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis of the risk factors for EP.
| Exposure | Crude OR (95% CI) | P-value | Adjusted OR (95% CI) | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type of infertility | ||||
| Non-tubal factor | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| Tubal factor | 1.45 (1.10, 1.90) | 0.0076 | 2.72 (1.69, 4.39) | <0.0001 |
| Endometrial thickness prior to ET (mm) | ||||
| <7.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| 7.6-12.1 | 0.56 (0.35, 0.87) | 0.0110 | 0.57 (0.36, 0.90) | 0.0153 |
| >12.1 | 0.41 (0.23, 0.72) | 0.0018 | 0.42 (0.24, 0.74) | 0.0026 |
| Embryo transfer | ||||
| cleavage stage | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| blastocyst stage | 0.37 (0.27, 0.51) | <0.0001 | 0.36 (0.26, 0.50) | <0.0001 |
| No. of embryos transferred | ||||
| Single Embryo Transfer | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| Double Embryo Transfer | 1.88 (1.38, 2.58) | <0.0001 | 1.99 (1.44, 2.75) | <0.0001 |
Figure 4Nomogram of the clinical prediction model in the modeling group. When using a nomogram, each variable value of a patient should be determined by the corresponding point on the shaft. Applying a vertical line up to the score axis will result in the variable score. According to scores obtained for all the variables on the total score shaft, the position of the total score can be determined. Applying a vertical line down to the predicted EP rate line will give the EP probability of a patient; For illustration, a total score of 110 in the nomogram predicts a >2.8% probability of EP.
Figure 5ROC curves for the accuracy of the EP nomogram (A). We established three prediction models, including the full model, stepwise and MFP models. We selected the simplest full model with relatively good prediction performance to construct the nomogram to ensure clinical practicability. Bootstrap resampling validation (times = 500) confirmed the prediction performance stability of the nomogram (B). The ROC curves for all models are shown in (C).