Yilan Liao1, Shan Xue1,2, Yiran Xie3, Yanping Zhang4, Dayan Wang3, Tong Zhao1,2, Wei Du5, Tao Chen3, Hui Miao6, Ying Qin4, Jiandong Zheng4, Xiaokun Yang4, Zhibin Peng4, Jianxing Yu7. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. 3. Chinese National Influenza Center, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. 4. Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. 5. School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China. 6. College of Art and Science, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA. 7. National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Optimizing the timing of influenza vaccination based on regional temporal seasonal influenza illness patterns may make seasonal influenza vaccination more effective in China. METHODS: We obtained provincial weekly influenza surveillance data for 30 of 31 provinces in mainland China from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention for the years 2010-2018. Influenza epidemiological regions were constructed by clustering analysis. For each region, we calculated onset date, end date, and duration of seasonal influenza epidemics by the modified mean threshold method. To help identify initial vaccination target populations, we acquired weekly influenza surveillance data for four age groups (0-4, 5-18, 19-59, and ≥60 years) in each region and in 171 cities of wide-ranging size. We used linear regression analyses to explore the association of epidemic onset dates by age group, city, and epidemiological region and provide evidence for initial target populations for seasonal influenza vaccination. RESULTS: We determined that northern, mid, southwestern, southeast regions of mainland China have distinct seasonal influenza epidemic patterns. We found significant regional, temporal, and spatial heterogeneity of seasonal influenza epidemics. There were significant differences by age group and city size in the interval between epidemic onset in the city or age group and regional spread (epidemic lead time), with longer epidemic lead times for 5- to 18-year-old children and larger cities. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of influenza epidemic characteristics may help optimize local influenza vaccination timing and identify initial target groups for seasonal influenza vaccination in mainland China. Similar analyses may help inform seasonal influenza vaccination strategies in other regions and countries.
BACKGROUND: Optimizing the timing of influenza vaccination based on regional temporal seasonal influenza illness patterns may make seasonal influenza vaccination more effective in China. METHODS: We obtained provincial weekly influenza surveillance data for 30 of 31 provinces in mainland China from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention for the years 2010-2018. Influenza epidemiological regions were constructed by clustering analysis. For each region, we calculated onset date, end date, and duration of seasonal influenza epidemics by the modified mean threshold method. To help identify initial vaccination target populations, we acquired weekly influenza surveillance data for four age groups (0-4, 5-18, 19-59, and ≥60 years) in each region and in 171 cities of wide-ranging size. We used linear regression analyses to explore the association of epidemic onset dates by age group, city, and epidemiological region and provide evidence for initial target populations for seasonal influenza vaccination. RESULTS: We determined that northern, mid, southwestern, southeast regions of mainland China have distinct seasonal influenza epidemic patterns. We found significant regional, temporal, and spatial heterogeneity of seasonal influenza epidemics. There were significant differences by age group and city size in the interval between epidemic onset in the city or age group and regional spread (epidemic lead time), with longer epidemic lead times for 5- to 18-year-old children and larger cities. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of influenza epidemic characteristics may help optimize local influenza vaccination timing and identify initial target groups for seasonal influenza vaccination in mainland China. Similar analyses may help inform seasonal influenza vaccination strategies in other regions and countries.
Authors: Stephen M Kissler; Julia R Gog; Cécile Viboud; Vivek Charu; Ottar N Bjørnstad; Lone Simonsen; Bryan T Grenfell Journal: Epidemics Date: 2018-10-10 Impact factor: 4.396
Authors: M Pan; H P Yang; J Jian; Y Kuang; J N Xu; T S Li; X Zhou; W L Wu; Z Zhao; C Wang; W Y Li; M Y Li; S S He; L L Zhou Journal: Epidemiol Infect Date: 2019-01 Impact factor: 2.451