| Literature DB >> 36011095 |
Eugenio Vera-Salmerón1,2, Emilio Mota-Romero1,2,3, José Luis Romero-Béjar2,4,5, Carmen Dominguez-Nogueira6, Basilio Gómez-Pozo2,7.
Abstract
Pressure ulcers (PU) represent a health problem with a significant impact on the morbidity and mortality of immobilized patients, and on the quality of life of affected people and their families. Risk assessment of pressure ulcers incidence must be carried out in a structured and comprehensive manner. The Braden Scale is the result of an analysis of risk factors that includes subscales that define exactly what should be interpreted in each one. The healthcare work with evidence-based practice with an objective criterion by the nursing professional is an essential addition for the application of preventive measures. Explanatory models based on the different subscales of Braden Scale purvey an estimation to level changes in the risk of suffering PU. A binary-response logistic regression model, supported by a study with an analytical, observational, longitudinal, and prospective design in the Granada-Metropolitan Primary Healthcare District (DSGM) in Andalusia (Southern Spain), with a sample of 16,215 immobilized status patients, using a Braden Scale log, is performed. A model that includes the mobility and activity scales achieves a correct classification rate of 86% (sensitivity (S) = 87.57%, specificity (SP) = 81.69%, positive predictive value (PPV) = 91.78%, and negative preventive value (NPV) = 73.78%), while if we add the skin moisture subscale to this model, the correct classification rate is 96% (S = 90.74%, SP = 88.83%, PPV = 95.00%, and NPV = 80.42%). The six subscales provide a model with a 99.5% correct classification rate (S = 99.93%, SP = 98.50%, PPV = 99.36%, and NPV = 99.83%). This analysis provides useful information to help predict this risk in this group of patients through objective nursing criteria.Entities:
Keywords: Braden Scale; activity; immobilized patients; logistic regression; mobility; pressure ulcers
Year: 2022 PMID: 36011095 PMCID: PMC9407965 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare10081438
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Healthcare (Basel) ISSN: 2227-9032
Description of variables.
| Response Variable | Level | % (N) |
|---|---|---|
| UP = Pressure ulcer (N = 16,215) | (0) No risk | 70.0 (11,354) |
| (1) Risk | 30.0 (4861) | |
| Explantatory variables | Level | % (N) |
| BSens = Sensory perception (N = 16,215) | (0) No impairment | 23.2 (3754) |
| (1) Slightly limited | 43.6 (7064) | |
| (2) Very limited | 25.7 (4179) | |
| (3) Completely limited | 7.5 (1218) | |
| BHum = Skin moisture (N = 16,215) | (0) Rarely moist | 39.3 (6371) |
| (1) Occasionally moist | 37.9 (6147) | |
| (2) Often moist | 17.0 (2762) | |
| (3) Constantly wet | 5.8 (935) | |
| BAct = Activity (N = 16,215) | (0) Walks frequently | 19.5 (3158) |
| (1) Walks occasionally | 44.0 (7142) | |
| (2) Chairfast | 26.2 (4249) | |
| (3) Bedfast | 10.3 (1666) | |
| BMov = Mobility (N = 16,215) | (0) No limitations | 8.4 (1357) |
| (1) Slightly limited | 39.8 (6458) | |
| (2) Very limited | 44.3 (7191) | |
| (3) Completely immobile | 7.5 (1209) | |
| BNut = Nutritional status (N = 16,215) | (0) Excellent | 7.6 (1240) |
| (1) Adequate | 74.1 (12,023) | |
| (2) Probably inadequate | 15.2 (2470) | |
| (3) Very poor | 3.1 (482) | |
| Broc = Shearing (N = 16,215) | (0) No apparent problem | 34.9 (5659) |
| (1) Potential problem | 50.1 (8128) | |
| (2) Problem | 15.0 (2428) | |
| S = Sex (N = 16,215) | (0) Female | 69.8 (11,323) |
| (1) Male | 30.2 (4892) |
Figure 1PU risk classification based on individual subscales.
Figure 2PU risk classification based on two subscales.
Figure 3PU risk classification based on three subscales.
Prognosis model for pressure ulcer (PU).
| Subscale | B | DT | Z |
| OR | CI for 95% OR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower | Upper | ||||||
| Constant | −29.53 | 1.16 | −25.48 | <0.001 | |||
|
| 2.81 | 0.39 | 7.24 | <0.001 | 16.61 | 7.92 | 36.60 |
|
| 6.91 | 0.42 | 16.58 | <0.001 | 742.48 | 454.86 | 2344.90 |
|
| 11.14 | 0.52 | 21.53 | <0.001 | 68,871.66 | 25,591.10 | 194,852.86 |
|
| 2.27 | 0.77 | 2.95 | <0.001 | 9.68 | 2.32 | 48.91 |
|
| 5.69 | 0.77 | 7.39 | <0.001 | 295.89 | 70.81 | 1510.20 |
|
| 9.61 | 0.85 | 11.32 | <0.001 | 14,913.17 | 3041.18 | 87,553.03 |
|
| 3.06 | 0.20 | 15.59 | <0.001 | 21.33 | 14.59 | 31.50 |
|
| 7.12 | 0.27 | 26.75 | <0.001 | 1236.45 | 742.48 | 2100.65 |
|
| 3.93 | 0.24 | 16.26 | <0.001 | 50.91 | 32.14 | 83.10 |
|
| 7.93 | 0.28 | 28.04 | <0.001 | 2779.43 | 1619.71 | 4914.77 |
|
| 11.54 | 0.44 | 26.19 | <0.001 | 102,744.44 | 44,355.86 | 250,196.03 |
|
| 3.82 | 0.19 | 19.88 | <0.001 | 45.60 | 31.82 | 67.36 |
|
| 7.89 | 0.25 | 31.05 | <0.001 | 2670.44 | 1635.98 | 4402.82 |
|
| 11.67 | 0.42 | 27.49 | <0.001 | 117,008.28 | 52,052.08 | 273,758.06 |
|
| 4.09 | 0.32 | 12.73 | <0.001 | 59.74 | 32.14 | 113.30 |
|
| 8.02 | 0.38 | 21.34 | <0.001 | 3041.18 | 1480.30 | 6438.17 |
|
| 11.68 | 0.60 | 19.40 | <0.001 | 118,184.24 | 37,049.12 | 388,481.18 |
Note: BAct = activity, BMov = mobility, BRoc = shearing, BSens = sensibility, BHum = skin moisture, BNut = nutritional status, B = estimated parameter, DT = standard deviation, Z = Z statistic, p = p-value, OR = odds ratio, CI = confidence interval, Lower = lower limit of the CI, Upper = upper limit of the CI.
Figure 4Confusion matrix 1 of the estimated model.
Figure 5ROC 1 of the estimated model.
Prognosis model for pressure ulcer (PU) based on activity and mobility subscales.
| Subscale | B | DT | Z |
| OR | CI for 95% OR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower | Upper | ||||||
| Constant | −6.04 | 0.41 | −14.89 | <0.001 | |||
|
| 1.42 | 0.19 | 7.51 | <0.001 | 4.14 | 2.89 | 6.05 |
|
| 3.15 | 0.19 | 16.73 | <0.001 | 23.34 | 16.44 | 34.47 |
|
| 5.18 | 0.22 | 24.07 | <0.001 | 177.68 | 117.92 | 275.89 |
|
| 1.09 | 0.40 | 2.72 | <0.001 | 2.97 | 1.46 | 7.24 |
|
| 3.40 | 0.40 | 8.54 | <0.001 | 29.96 | 14.73 | 72.24 |
|
| 5.00 | 0.42 | 12.01 | <0.001 | 148.41 | 70.11 | 368.71 |
Note: BAct = Activity, BMov = Mobility, B = estimated parameter, DT = standard deviation, Z = Z statistic, p = p-value, OR = odds ratio, CI = confidence interval, Lower = lower limit of the CI, Upper = upper limit of the CI.
Figure 6Confusion matrix 2 of the estimated model.
Figure 7ROC 2 of the estimated model.
Prognosis model for pressure ulcer (PU) based on activity, mobility, and skin moisture subscales.
| Subscale | B | DT | Z |
| OR | CI for 95% OR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower | Upper | ||||||
| Constant | −8.37 | 0.49 | −17.25 | <0.001 | |||
|
| 1.00 | 0.46 | 2.20 | <0.05 | 2.72 | 1.20 | 7.32 |
|
| 3.40 | 0.46 | 7.47 | <0.001 | 29.96 | 13.20 | 80.64 |
|
| 5.25 | 0.48 | 10.90 | <0.001 | 190.57 | 79.04 | 533.79 |
|
| 1.15 | 0.21 | 5.39 | <0.001 | 3.16 | 2.12 | 4.90 |
|
| 2.87 | 0.22 | 13.34 | <0.001 | 17.64 | 11.70 | 27.39 |
|
| 5.25 | 0.25 | 20.98 | <0.001 | 190.57 | 117.92 | 314.19 |
|
| 2.33 | 0.10 | 22.64 | <0.001 | 10.28 | 8.50 | 12.68 |
|
| 4.37 | 0.12 | 37.79 | <0.001 | 79.04 | 63.43 | 99.48 |
|
| 6.11 | 0.20 | 29.89 | <0.001 | 450.34 | 304.90 | 678.58 |
Note: BAct = activity, BMov = mobility, BHum = skin moisture, B = estimated parameter, DT = standard deviation, Z = Z statistic, p = p-value, OR = odds ratio, CI = confidence interval, Lower = lower limit of the CI, Upper = upper limit of the CI.
Figure 8Confusion matrix 3 of the estimated model.
Figure 9ROC 3 of the estimated model.