Literature DB >> 35996564

Study on Dynamic Progression and Risk Assessment of Metabolic Syndrome Based on Multi-State Markov Model.

Jaina Razbek1, Yan Zhang1, Wen-Jun Xia1, Wan-Ting Xu1, De-Yang Li1, Zhe Yin1, Ming-Qin Cao1.   

Abstract

Aim: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) coexists with the occurrence and even death of cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. It is essential to study the factors in the dynamic progression of MetS in the interest of prevention and control. Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the dynamic progression of Mets and explore the potential factors influencing the progression or reversal of MetS. Patients and
Methods: This study involved 5581 individuals from two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study: 2011 and 2015. A multistate Markov model containing 4 states (free of metabolic disorder (FMD), mild metabolic disorder (MMD), severe metabolic disorder (SMD) and MetS) was adopted to study the dynamic progression of MetS and its influencing factors.
Results: After follow-up, a total of 2862 cases (50.28% of the total number) had disease state transition. The intensity of transition from MetS to SMD is the same as that from SMD to MMD, and is greater than that from MMD to Mets (0.06 vs 0.05). For the MetS state, a mean of 1/0.08=12.5 years was spent in the MetS state before recovery. The exercise, smoke, drink, BMI level, hyperuricemia had statistically significant effects on progression of MetS status (P<0.05). The obesity or overweight, little exercise, smoke, drink and hyperuricemia increased the risk of forward progression of MetS disease status. There were significant nonmodifiable (age, gender) and modifiable factors (exercise, drink, BMI level, or high HbA1c) associated with reversion of MetS state.
Conclusion: The likelihood of progression from MMD to MetS is less likely than that of reversion from MetS to SMD and SMD to MMD. Old females were more resistant to recover from worse states than males. Prevention and intervention measures should be adopted early when MMD or SMD onset occurs.
© 2022 Razbek et al.

Entities:  

Keywords:  backward reversal; forward progression; metabolic syndrome; multi-state Markov model

Year:  2022        PMID: 35996564      PMCID: PMC9392490          DOI: 10.2147/DMSO.S362071

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Diabetes Metab Syndr Obes        ISSN: 1178-7007            Impact factor:   3.249


  42 in total

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