| Literature DB >> 35879736 |
Jeremy A Elman1,2, Jacob W Vogel3,4, Diana I Bocancea5, Rik Ossenkoppele5,6,7, Anna C van Loenhoud5,6, Xin M Tu8, William S Kremen9,10.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cognitive reserve and resilience are terms used to explain interindividual variability in maintenance of cognitive health in response to adverse factors, such as brain pathology in the context of aging or neurodegenerative disorders. There is substantial interest in identifying tractable substrates of resilience to potentially leverage this phenomenon into intervention strategies. One way of operationalizing cognitive resilience that has gained popularity is the residual method: regressing cognition on an adverse factor and using the residual as a measure of resilience. This method is attractive because it provides a statistical approach that is an intuitive match to the reserve/resilience conceptual framework. However, due to statistical properties of the regression equation, the residual approach has qualities that complicate its interpretation as an index of resilience and make it statistically inappropriate in certain circumstances. METHODS ANDEntities:
Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease; Cognitive reserve; Residuals; Resilience
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35879736 PMCID: PMC9310423 DOI: 10.1186/s13195-022-01049-w
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Alzheimers Res Ther Impact factor: 8.823
Fig. 1Examples of residuals from two extreme scenarios. One thousand paired values were generated from a multivariate normal distribution to represent a cognitive score and brain measure indicative of atrophy. Variables in panels A and C were generated with correlations of r = 0.9 and r = 0.0 to show extreme scenarios. The variables in panel B were generated with a correlation of r = 0.5 to reflect what would be considered a strong yet realistic association between brain and cognitive measures. The cognitive score was regressed on the brain measure, and residuals from 100 randomly selected observations (for easier visualization) are plotted with color indicating the magnitude of the residuals (i.e., distance between predicted cognitive score and actual cognitive score). The dashed line represented the average cognitive score. When cognition and the brain are highly correlated (panel A), individuals with both higher and lower than average cognitive scores display a mix of positive and negative residuals. In contrast, when cognition and the brain are uncorrelated, individuals with high cognitive scores all have positive residuals and individuals with low cognitive scores have negative residuals
Fig. 2Correlation between cognition residual and cognition varies as a function of correlation between cognition and an adverse factor. One thousand paired values representing a cognitive score and brain measure indicative of atrophy were generated from a multivariate normal distribution with a correlation varying from 0 to 1. At each iteration, cognition was regressed on the brain measure and residuals were saved. The plot displays the correlation of residuals with the cognitive score and the association between cognition and brain increases. The red dot marks the point where the correlation between cognition and brain is 0.71. When the correlation between cognition and brain is smaller than this value, cognition will explain >50% of the variance in the residual measure (i.e., squared correlation between the two variables)
Fig. 3Examples of residuals from the ADNI dataset. Cognition residuals were calculated in a sample of Aβ+ individuals on the Alzheimer’s disease spectrum from the ADNI dataset. A ADNI-MEM, a composite measure of memory ability, was regressed on hippocampal volumes derived from structural MRI. Residuals are plotted with color indicating their magnitude. This figure represents a realistic association between the brain and cognition that can be expected in real samples. Panel B illustrates the high dependency of the cognition residual on cognition itself, with their correlation being 0.83 in the ADNI example. The blue dot in panel C represents the correlation between ADNI-MEM and hippocampal volume, for which 68% of the variance in the resulting residual is explained by the cognition variable. The red dot marks the point where the correlation between cognition and brain is 0.71 and therefore where 50% of the variance in the residual would be explained by cognition (i.e., squared correlation between the two variables). The blue dot falls perfectly along the simulated curve
Fig. 4Associations with cognitive decline. Figures represent associations between annual slopes in memory (derived as the random slopes from a linear mixed effects model of memory regressed on time that included the whole sample) and A memory at baseline, B residuals of baseline memory regressed on hippocampal volume, and C baseline memory when hippocampal is also included as a predictor in the model. This figure illustrates that the regression coefficient (β) estimated for the memory residual in panel B (a linear regression of the form “Slopes ~ Residual”) is equivalent to the coefficient of the cognition term in a multivariable regression that includes both cognition and brain as predictors of decline (slopes ~ memory + hippocampal volume) shown in panel C. Note that panel C is a partial regression plot, in which the data points illustrate the relationship between memory slopes and cognition when covarying for brain. MEM = ADNI memory factor score
Relationship of residuals with cognitive decline, with and without adjusting for baseline cognition
| Model 1: Cognition ~ Residuals*Time | 0.05 | 0.03–0.08 | |
| Model 2: Cognition ~ Residuals*Time + BaselineCognition*Time | −0.10 | −0.14 to −0.06 | |
| Model 3: Cognition ~ ResidualsCor*Time | −0.11 | −0.14 to −0.07 |
All models are linear mixed effects models with random intercepts and slopes per participant, and cognitive score at each timepoint as dependent variable. Cognition was assessed using ADNI-MEM, the standardized composite ADNI memory score
Model 1: Cognition ~ Residuals*Time. This model represents the usual case scenario in which the (cognition) residual is used as a predictor in a subsequent analysis (e.g., here to predict decline)
Model 2: Cognition ~ Residuals*Time + BaselineCognition*Time. This model represents the first proposed alternative solution, i.e., adding baseline cognition, on which the residual is based, as a covariate alongside the residual to assess the effect of “resilience independent of cognitive performance”
Model 3: Cognition ~ ResidualsCor*Time. This model represents the second proposed alternative solution, i.e., regressing the cognition variable out of the residual to obtain a “corrected” residual (“ResidualsCor”) in a subsequent analysis
Abbreviations: β unstandardized regression coefficient from linear mixed effects models, CI 95% confidence interval
Fig. 5A Variance in current cognitive performance (leftmost bar) is driven by a number of contributing factors. B If the variance explained by an adverse factor (e.g., hippocampal atrophy, pathology, etc.) is regressed out, the remaining variance is largely the same as the current cognitive performance. C A large portion of current cognitive performance is explained by premorbid cognitive performance. The remaining variance can be interpreted as “change in cognitive performance” compared to expected. D Variance explained by an adverse factor can be regressed out of this “change in cognitive performance,” but what remains is highly correlated with the original “change in cognitive performance” measure. E Variance that remains in current and past cognitive performance can be explained by a host of known and to-be-discovered genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors and pathologies, as well as measurement noise. Ultimately, our goal is to understand what contributes to this variance and reduce error in our model of cognition. F These models can be used to predict cognitive state or forecast cognitive decline. The more comprehensive our models of cognition, the better our individual levels of prediction will be. With better models for cognition, we shift our focus to simulating how modification of a pathological or resilience factor might influence maintenance of healthy cognition