| Literature DB >> 35864556 |
Yuelang Liang1, Zijun Gong1, Jiajia Guo1, Qi Cheng1, Zhenjiang Yao1.
Abstract
The Omicron variant was first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from South Africa on November 24, 2021; this variant is spreading rapidly worldwide. No study has conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of the morbidity of Omicron infection at the country level; hence, to explore the spatial transmission of the Omicron variant among the 220 countries worldwide, we aimed to the analyze its spatial autocorrelation and to conduct a multiple linear regression to investigate the underlying factors associated with the pandemic. This study was an ecological study. Data on the number of confirmed cases were extracted from the WHO website. The spatiotemporal characteristic was described in a thematic map. The Global Moran Index (Moran's I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation, while the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) were used to analyze the local spatial correlation characteristics. The joinpoint regression model was used to explore the change in the trend of the Omicron incidence over time. The association between the morbidity of Omicron and influencing factors were analyzed using multiple linear regression. This study was an ecological study. Data on the number of confirmed cases were extracted from the WHO website. The spatiotemporal characteristic was described in a thematic map. The Global Moran Index (Moran's I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation, while the LISA were used to analyze the local spatial correlation characteristics. The joinpoint regression model was used to explore the change in the trend of the Omicron incidence over time. The association between the morbidity of Omicron and influencing factors were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The value of Moran's I was positive (Moran's I = 0.061, Z-score = 3.772, p = 0.007), indicating a spatial correlation of the morbidity of Omicron at the country level. From November 26, 2021 to February 26, 2022; the morbidity showed obvious spatial clustering. Hotspot clustering was observed mostly in Europe (locations in High-High category: 24). Coldspot clustering was observed mostly in Africa and Asia (locations in Low-Low category: 32). The result of joinpoint regression showed an increasing trend from December 21, 2021 to January 26, 2022. Results of the multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that the morbidity of Omicron was strongly positively correlated with income support (coefficient = 1.905, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.354-2.456, p < 0.001) and strongly negatively correlated with close public transport (coefficient = -1.591, 95% CI: -2.461 to -0.721, p = 0.001). Omicron outbreaks exhibited spatial clustering at the country level worldwide; the countries with higher disease morbidity could impact the other countries that are surrounded by and close to it. The locations with High-High clustering category, which referred to the countries with higher disease morbidity, were mainly observed in Europe, and its adjoining country also showed high spatial clustering. The morbidity of Omicron increased from December 21, 2021 to January 26, 2022. The higher morbidity of Omicron was associated with the economic and policy interventions implemented; hence, to deal with the epidemic, the prevention and control measures should be strengthened in all aspects.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; Omicron; global distribution; spatial clustering; spatiotemporal analysis
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35864556 PMCID: PMC9544667 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.28013
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Med Virol ISSN: 0146-6615 Impact factor: 20.693
Status of missing value
| Variables | Range of values | Missing value ( |
| Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stringency index | 2.78–93.52 | 7270 | 23 047 | 31.54 |
| Containment index | 14.29–84.52 | 7270 | 23 047 | 31.54 |
| Restriction gatherings | 0–4 | 7255 | 23 047 | 31.48 |
| Facial coverings | 0–4 | 7266 | 23 047 | 31.53 |
| Cancel public events | 0–2 | 7243 | 23 047 | 31.43 |
| Workplace closures | 0–3 | 7243 | 23 047 | 31.43 |
| Testing policy | 0–3 | 7303 | 23 047 | 31.69 |
| Contact tracing | 0–2 | 7268 | 23 047 | 31.54 |
| School closures | 0–3 | 7231 | 23 047 | 31.38 |
| Stay home requirements | 0–3 | 7267 | 23 047 | 31.53 |
| Income support | 0–2 | 7281 | 23 047 | 31.59 |
| Debt relief | 0–2 | 7303 | 23 047 | 31.69 |
| Public information campaigns | 0–2 | 7282 | 23 047 | 31.60 |
| Restrictions internal movements | 0–2 | 7261 | 23 047 | 31.51 |
| Vaccination policy | 0–5 | 7268 | 23 047 | 31.54 |
| Close public transport | 0–2 | 7238 | 23 047 | 31.41 |
| International travel controls | 0–4 | 7270 | 23 047 | 31.54 |
Abbreviations: n, number of missing values; N, total number of observation.
Stringency index and containment index were assigned as continuous variables, while the other variables were assigned as ordinal variables.
Figure 1Global spatial distribution of Omicron morbidity from November 26, 2021 to February 26, 2022
Figure 2Local indicators of spatial association cluster map of the Omicron morbidity from November 26, 2021 to February 26, 2022
Location of LISA map classified into four categories
| High–High | Low–Low | Low–High | High–Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra | Angola | Albania | Mongolia |
| Belgium | American Samoa | Austria | Sint Maarten |
| Switzerland | Bangladesh | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Réunion |
| Denmark | Central African Republic | Czechia | |
| Spain | Ivory Coast | Germany | |
| France | Cameroon | The United Kingdom | |
| Faroe Islands | Democratic Republic of the Congo | Italy | |
| Gibraltar | Congo | Lithuania | |
| Croatia | Cook Islands | Morocco | |
| Hungary | Ethiopia | Serbia | |
| Isle of Man | Gabon | Sweden | |
| Ireland | Ghana | ||
| Iceland | Equatorial Guinea | ||
| Liechtenstein | India | ||
| Luxembourg | Lao People's Democratic Republic | ||
| Monaco | Liberia | ||
| Montenegro | Sri Lanka | ||
| Netherlands | Myanmar | ||
| Norway | Namibia | ||
| Poland | Nigeria | ||
| Portugal | Niue | ||
| San Marino | Nepal | ||
| Slovakia | French Polynesia | ||
| Slovenia | Rwanda | ||
| South Sudan | |||
| Togo | |||
| Tokelau | |||
| Tonga | |||
| Uganda | |||
| Vanuatu | |||
| Wallis and Futuna | |||
| Samoa |
Abbreviation: LISA, local indicators of spatial association.
Figure 3Trend of Omicron morbidity (per million) per day, November 26, 2021 to February 26, 2022
Result of joinpoint regression model
| Date | DPC (95% CI) |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| World | |||
| 2021/11/26–2021/12/21 | 0.8 (−1.0 to 2.6) | 0.9 | 0.386 |
| 2021/12/21–2022/1/7 | 8.1 (5.6–10.7) | 6.6 | <0.001 |
| 2022/1/7–2022/1/26 | 1.7 (0.3–3.1) | 2.5 | 0.015 |
| 2022/1/26–2022/02/26 | −2.9 (−3.5 to −2.2) | −8.6 | <0.001 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; DPC, daily percent change.
Multiple linear regression analysis between morbidity of Omicron and influencing factors
| Variables | Coefficient | SE |
|
| 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stringency index | −0.053 | 0.088 | −0.61 | 0.547 | −0.231 to 0.124 |
| Containment index | 0.358 | 0.100 | 3.57 | 0.001 | 0.155–0.561 |
| Restriction gatherings | −0.149 | 0.207 | −0.72 | 0.474 | −0.558 to 0.261 |
| Facial coverings | −1.571 | 0.293 | −5.36 | <0.001 | −2.168 to −0.974 |
| Cancel public events | −1.275 | 0.512 | −2.49 | 0.016 | −2.300 to −0.250 |
| Workplace closures | 1.050 | 0.410 | 2.56 | 0.016 | 0.209 to 1.890 |
| Testing policy | −0.825 | 0.329 | −2.51 | 0.014 | −1.478 to −0.171 |
| Contact tracing | −0.243 | 0.518 | −0.47 | 0.643 | −1.301 to 0.815 |
| School closures | −0.883 | 0.302 | −2.92 | 0.006 | −1.493 to −0.273 |
| Stay home requirements | −1.485 | 0.404 | −3.68 | 0.001 | −2.321 to −0.649 |
| Income support | 1.905 | 0.278 | 6.85 | <0.001 | 1.354–2.456 |
| Debt relief | −0.633 | 0.246 | −2.57 | 0.012 | −1.124 to −0.143 |
| Public information campaigns | 0.077 | 0.791 | 0.10 | 0.923 | −1.533 to 1.688 |
| Restrictions internal movements | −1.271 | 0.406 | −3.13 | 0.004 | −2.104 to −0.438 |
| Vaccination policy | 0.354 | 0.284 | 1.25 | 0.219 | −0.219 to 0.928 |
| Close public transport | −1.591 | 0.435 | −3.65 | 0.001 | −2.461 to −0.721 |
| International travel controls | −0.988 | 0.285 | −3.47 | 0.002 | −1.568 to −0.408 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; SE, standard error.