| Literature DB >> 35692401 |
Bin Zeng1, Yu Min1, Yang Feng1, Ke Xiang1, Hang Chen1, Zijing Lin1.
Abstract
Purpose: Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is regarded as a predictor for local recurrence in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) but the role of prophylactic central lymph node dissection (CLND) is controversial. Our study aims to identify the clinical factors associated with CLNM and develop a nomogram for making individualized clinical decisions. Method: The perioperative data of 1,054 consecutive patients between Jan 2019 and April 2021, in our center, were reviewed and analyzed. A total of 747 patients with histopathologically confirmed classical PTC were included as the training cohort and 374 (50% training cases) patients were randomly selected to build a validating cohort via internal bootstrap analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the correlation between clinicopathological characteristics and CLNM. Result: In the training cohort, 33.6% (251/747) of patients with classical PTC were confirmed with CLNM. And the CLNM was determined in 31.4% (168/535) of non-Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) patients versus 39.2% (83/212) in HT patients (p=0.043). Four factors including gender, age, size, and HT status were confirmed significantly associated with CLNM. The established nomogram showed good discrimination and consistency with a C-index of 0.703, supported by the internal validation cohort with a C-index of 0.701. The decision curve analysis showed the nomogram has promising clinical feasibility.Entities:
Keywords: Hashimoto’s thyroiditis; central lymph node metastasis; nomogram; papillary thyroid carcinoma; risk factor
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35692401 PMCID: PMC9185947 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2022.868606
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) ISSN: 1664-2392 Impact factor: 6.055
Figure 1The patients’ selecting process in our department.
The clinicopathological characteristics of classical PTC patients.
| Variables | Subgroup | No. of patients |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training cohort(n=747) | Validating cohort(n=374) | |||
|
| <55 | 589 | 294 | a0.938 |
| ≥55 | 158 | 80 | ||
|
| male | 157 | 76 | a0.815 |
| female | 590 | 298 | ||
|
| Chinese | 747 | 374 | – |
|
| I | 702 | 356 | b0.724 |
| II | 40 | 16 | ||
| III | 5 | 2 | ||
|
| No | 466 | 217 | a0.173 |
| Yes | 281 | 157 | ||
|
| No | 685 | 344 | a0.909 |
| Yes | 62 | 30 | ||
|
| TL+CLND | 222 | 117 | a0.182 |
| subTT+CLND | 46 | 33 | ||
| TT+CLND | 479 | 224 | ||
|
| ≤1 | 496 | 244 | b0.924 |
| >1 and ≤2 | 189 | 95 | ||
| >2 and ≤4 | 55 | 31 | ||
| >4 | 7 | 4 | ||
|
| No | 45 | 26 | a0.749 |
| Yes | 587 | 287 | ||
| N/A | 115 | 61 | ||
|
| cN0 | 627 | 308 | a0.551 |
| cN1 | 120 | 66 | ||
|
| No | 535 | 249 | a0.085 |
| Yes | 212 | 125 | ||
|
| / |
| 2.42 ± 1.61 | c0.292 |
|
| / | 4.85 ± 1.06 | 4.84 ± 0.86 | c0.817 |
|
| / |
| 16.85 ± 2.95 | c0.724 |
|
| / |
| 1.81 ± 1.05 | c0.514 |
|
| / |
| 102.14 ± 22.36 | c0.146 |
|
| / |
| 152.79 ± 350.39 | c0.282 |
|
| / |
| 73.41 ± 125.62 | c0.403 |
|
| / |
| 44.21 ± 104.02 | c0.344 |
|
| / |
| 4.47 ± 4.93 | c0.347 |
|
| / |
| 1.32 ± 2.51 | c0.175 |
|
| / |
| 1.40 ± 4.85 | c0.515 |
|
| / |
| 0.33 ± 1.54 | c0.723 |
|
| No | 496 | 239 | a0.424 |
| Yes | 251 | 135 | ||
|
| No | 689 | 341 | a0.563 |
| Yes | 58 | 33 | ||
*: Mean ± HT, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis; PTC, papillary thyroid carcinoma; cN0, clinically lymph node-negative; cN1, clinically lymph node-positive; TL, thyroid lobectomy; CLND, central lymph node dissection; subTT, subtotal thyroidectomy; TT, total thyroidectomy; LNM, lymph node metastasis; LN, lymph node. aPearson’s Chi-squared test bTwo-tail Fisher exact test cStudent’s two-tail t-test.
Clinicopathological features of 747 PTC patients with HT or without HT in the training cohort.
| Variables | Subgroup | No. (%) of patients |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| without HT (n=535) | with HT (n=212) | |||
|
| male | 145 (27.1) | 12 (5.7) |
|
| female | 390 (72.9) | 200 (94.3) | ||
|
| <55 | 414 (77.4) | 175 (82.5) | 0.119 |
| ≥55 | 121 (22.6) | 37 (17.5) | ||
|
| ≤1 | 361 (67.5) | 135 (63.7) | 0.175 |
| >1 and ≤2 | 127 (23.7) | 62 (29.2) | ||
| >2 and ≤4 | 40 (7.5) | 15 (7.1) | ||
| >4 | 7 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) | ||
|
| positive | 202 (37.8) | 79 (37.3) | 0.900 |
| negative | 333 (62.2) | 133 (62.7) | ||
|
| positive | 46 (8.6) | 16 (7.5) | 0.639 |
| negative | 489 (91.4) | 196 (92.5) | ||
|
| No | 30 (5.6) | 15 (7.1) | 0.719 |
| Yes | 421 (78.7) | 166 (78.3) | ||
| NA | 84 (15.7) | 31 (14.6) | ||
|
| / | *2.54 ± 5.190 | 3.14 ± 5.436 | ¶0.158 |
|
| / | *4.89 ± 1.075 | 4.75 ± 1.001 | ¶0.314 |
|
| / | *16.74 ± 2.933 | 16.87 ± 3.321 | ¶0.348 |
|
| / | *2.12 ± 6.128 | 1.69 ± 0.361 | ¶0.937 |
|
| / | *100.10 ± 20.773 | 99.53 ± 21.728 | ¶0.162 |
|
| / | *64.21 ± 289.082 | 481.89 ± 727.597 |
|
|
| / | *29.58 ± 57.723 | 160.40 ± 172.732 |
|
|
| / | *41.27 ± 89.908 | 31.05 ± 85.510 | ¶0.494 |
|
| / | *3.30 ± 3.739 | 6.46 ± 5.390 |
|
|
| / | *1.03 ± 2.120 | 1.33 ± 2.372 | ¶0.092 |
|
| / | *1.17 ± 4.555 | 1.31 ± 4.242 | ¶0.699 |
|
| / | *0.31 ± 1.555 | 0.25 ± 1.097 | ¶0.584 |
|
| No | 367 (68.6) | 129 (60.8) |
|
| Yes | 168 (31.4) | 83 (39.2) | ||
|
| No | 493 (92.1) | 196 (92.5) | 0.889 |
| Yes | 42 (7.9) | 16 (7.5) | ||
|
| I | 504 (94.2) | 198 (93.4) | 0.462 |
| II | 19 (3.6) | 11 (5.2) | ||
| III | 12 (2.2) | 3 (1.4) | ||
*: Mean ± SD; ¶: two-tailed t-test; HT, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis; LNM, lymph node metastasis; NA, not mentioned. Bold values indicate statistical significance (p < 0.05).
Univariate and multivariate analysis of 747 PTC patients for CLNM.
| Variables | Subgroup | Univariable | Multivariable | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard ratio |
| Hazard ratio |
| ||
|
| female | Reference |
| Reference |
|
| male | 1.945 (1.357, 2.787) | 2.426 (1.628, 3.614) | |||
|
| <55 | Reference |
| Reference |
|
| ≥55 | 0.607 (0.409, 0.902) | 0.583 (0.382, 0.890) | |||
|
| ≤1 | Reference |
| Reference |
|
| >1 and ≤2 | 3.202 (2.252, 4.552) | 3.315 (2.309, 4.760) | |||
| >2 and ≤4 | 4.752 (2.667, 8.466) | 5.270 (2.908, 9.552) | |||
| >4 | 4.224 (0.932, 19.142) | 5.072 (1.083, 23.748) | |||
|
| negative | Reference | 0.372 | / | |
| positive | 1.153 (0.844, 1.574) | ||||
|
| No | Reference | 0.666 | / | |
| Yes | 1.162 (0.604, 2.234) | ||||
| NA | 0.969 (0.460, 2.042) | ||||
|
| No | Reference |
| Reference |
|
| Yes | 1.406 (1.010, 1.957) | 1.678 (1.161, 2.424) | |||
CLNM, central lymph node metastasis; HT, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis; NA, not mentioned. Bold values indicate statistical significance (p < 0.05).
Figure 2Clinical factor-based nomogram used for predicting the CLNM in PTC patients. CLNM, central lymph node metastasis, HT, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis.
The specific value of clinicopathological features in the nomogram.
| Characteristics | Score |
|---|---|
|
| |
| ≥5 years old | 0 |
| <55 years old | 32 |
|
| |
| female | 0 |
| male | 53 |
|
| |
| >0 and ≤1 | 0 |
| >1 and ≤2 | 72 |
| >2 and ≤4 | 100 |
| >4 | 98 |
|
| |
| Not present | 0 |
| present | 31 |
|
| |
| 0.2 | 34 |
| 0.3 | 67 |
| 0.4 | 93 |
| 0.5 | 118 |
| 0.6 | 141 |
| 0.7 | 169 |
| 0.8 | 201 |
CLNM, central lymph node metastasis.
Figure 3(A) The calibration curve for evaluating the accuracy of the nomogram; (B) The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC) in the training cohort; (C) The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC) in the validating cohort.
Figure 4Determination of decision points via Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) and Clinical Impact Curve (CIC). (A) DCA for the prediction model (EI-Score). The decision curve analysis graphically shows the clinical usefulness of the EI-Score based on a continuum of potential thresholds for central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) (x-axis) and the net benefit of using the EI-Score to stratify patients (y-axis). Net benefit curves are plotted across probability thresholds for 7 options: ‘‘treat all’ assume all patients have CLNM, ‘treat none’ assume no patients have CLNM, treat according to combined clinical factors (age, gender, tumor size, HT), Age, Gender, size, HT and EI-Score. Net benefit = (true positives/N)- (false positives/N) *(weighting factor). Weighting factor = Threshold probability/(1-threshold probability). (B) CIC for EI-Score. The red line shows the total number who would be deemed as low risk of CLNM for each risk threshold. The blue line shows how many of those would be true positive (without CLNM).