Literature DB >> 35664221

Interoperability of statistical models in pandemic preparedness: principles and reality.

Chris Holmes1,2,3, Sylvia Richardson2,4, George Nicholson1, Marta Blangiardo5, Mark Briers1,5,6,7,2,3,8,4,9, Peter J Diggle8, Tor Erlend Fjelde9, Hong Ge9, Robert J B Goudie4, Radka Jersakova2, Ruairidh E King3, Brieuc C L Lehmann1, Ann-Marie Mallon3, Tullia Padellini5, Yee Whye Teh1.   

Abstract

We present interoperability as a guiding framework for statistical modelling to assist policy makers asking multiple questions using diverse datasets in the face of an evolving pandemic response. Interoperability provides an important set of principles for future pandemic preparedness, through the joint design and deployment of adaptable systems of statistical models for disease surveillance using probabilistic reasoning. We illustrate this through case studies for inferring and characterising spatial-temporal prevalence and reproduction numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England.

Entities:  

Keywords:  Bayesian graphical models; COVID-19; Evidence synthesis; Interoperability; Modularization; Multi-source inference

Year:  2022        PMID: 35664221      PMCID: PMC7612804          DOI: 10.1214/22-STS854

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Stat Sci        ISSN: 0883-4237            Impact factor:   4.015


  24 in total

1.  Training products of experts by minimizing contrastive divergence.

Authors:  Geoffrey E Hinton
Journal:  Neural Comput       Date:  2002-08       Impact factor: 2.026

2.  Simultaneous vs. sequential analysis for population PK/PD data I: best-case performance.

Authors:  Liping Zhang; Stuart L Beal; Lewis B Sheiner
Journal:  J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn       Date:  2003-12       Impact factor: 2.745

3.  COVID-19 and disparities affecting ethnic minorities.

Authors:  Daniel R Morales; Sarah N Ali
Journal:  Lancet       Date:  2021-04-30       Impact factor: 79.321

4.  An intuitive Bayesian spatial model for disease mapping that accounts for scaling.

Authors:  Andrea Riebler; Sigrunn H Sørbye; Daniel Simpson; Håvard Rue
Journal:  Stat Methods Med Res       Date:  2016-08       Impact factor: 3.021

5.  Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.

Authors:  Seth Flaxman; Swapnil Mishra; Axel Gandy; H Juliette T Unwin; Thomas A Mellan; Helen Coupland; Charles Whittaker; Harrison Zhu; Tresnia Berah; Jeffrey W Eaton; Mélodie Monod; Azra C Ghani; Christl A Donnelly; Steven Riley; Michaela A C Vollmer; Neil M Ferguson; Lucy C Okell; Samir Bhatt
Journal:  Nature       Date:  2020-06-08       Impact factor: 49.962

6.  Four key challenges in infectious disease modelling using data from multiple sources.

Authors:  Daniela De Angelis; Anne M Presanis; Paul J Birrell; Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba; Thomas House
Journal:  Epidemics       Date:  2014-09-28       Impact factor: 4.396

7.  Rapid model exploration for complex hierarchical data: application to pharmacokinetics of insulin aspart.

Authors:  Robert J B Goudie; Roman Hovorka; Helen R Murphy; David Lunn
Journal:  Stat Med       Date:  2015-05-26       Impact factor: 2.373

8.  Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study.

Authors:  Qifang Bi; Yongsheng Wu; Shujiang Mei; Chenfei Ye; Xuan Zou; Zhen Zhang; Xiaojian Liu; Lan Wei; Shaun A Truelove; Tong Zhang; Wei Gao; Cong Cheng; Xiujuan Tang; Xiaoliang Wu; Yu Wu; Binbin Sun; Suli Huang; Yu Sun; Juncen Zhang; Ting Ma; Justin Lessler; Tiejian Feng
Journal:  Lancet Infect Dis       Date:  2020-04-27       Impact factor: 25.071

9.  Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave.

Authors:  Paul Birrell; Joshua Blake; Edwin van Leeuwen; Nick Gent; Daniela De Angelis
Journal:  Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci       Date:  2021-05-31       Impact factor: 6.237

10.  Fully Bayesian hierarchical modelling in two stages, with application to meta-analysis.

Authors:  David Lunn; Jessica Barrett; Michael Sweeting; Simon Thompson
Journal:  J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat       Date:  2013-08       Impact factor: 1.864

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