| Literature DB >> 35467083 |
Rob C Van Wijk1, Ulrika S H Simonsson1.
Abstract
Parametric time-to-event analysis is an important pharmacometric method to predict the probability of an event up until a certain time as a function of covariates and/or drug exposure. Modeling is performed at the level of the hazard function describing the instantaneous rate of an event occurring at that timepoint. We give an overview of the parametric time-to-event analysis starting with graphical exploration by Kaplan-Meier plotting for the event data including censoring and nonparametric hazard estimators such as the kernel-based visual hazard comparison for the underlying hazard. The most common hazard functions including the exponential, Gompertz, Weibull, log-normal, log-logistic, and circadian functions are described in detail. A Shiny application was developed to graphically guide the modeler which of the most common hazard functions presents a similar shape compared to the data in order to guide which hazard functions to test in the parametric time-to-event analysis. For the chosen hazard function(s), the Shiny application can additionally be used to explore corresponding parameter values to inform on suitable initial estimates for parametric modeling as well as on possible covariate or treatment relationships to certain parameters. Moreover, it can be used for the dissemination of results as well as communication, training, and workshops on time-to-event analysis. By guiding the modeler on which functions and what parameter values to test and compare as well as to assist in dissemination, the Shiny application developed here greatly supports the modeler in complicated parametric time-to-event modeling.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35467083 PMCID: PMC9381898 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.12797
Source DB: PubMed Journal: CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol ISSN: 2163-8306
FIGURE 1Time‐to‐event analysis workflow. White box represents the input data, green boxes represent actions that can be supported by the proposed Shiny application, and blue boxes represent actions by other algorithms (e.g., nonparametric hazard estimators, nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling software)
FIGURE 2Graphical exploration of a typical time‐to‐event data set. The data set was simulated with a log‐logistic hazard function (λ = 0.002, γ = 1.1) over 365 days for 1000 individuals (IDs) with 10% random right‐censoring. (a) Follow‐up time (horizontal line), event (circle symbol), and censoring (plus symbol) for 100 IDs randomly drawn from the simulated data and ordered on event time; (b) Kaplan–Meier plot of the survival probability including censoring (plus symbol) based on the full simulated data set; and (c) kernel‐based visual hazard comparison showing the nonparametric kernel‐based hazard estimate (dashed line) and its 95% confidence interval (shaded area) based on the full simulated data set
Hazard functions for the most commonly used models in time‐to‐event analysis
| Model | Hazard function |
|---|---|
| Exponential |
|
| Gompertz |
|
| Weibull |
Alternatively:
|
| Log‐normal |
|
| Log‐logistic |
Alternatively:
|
| Generalized gamma |
|
| Circadian |
|
FIGURE 3Hazard over time for the exponential model (solid line: λ = 0.1; dotted line: λ = 0.05; dashed line: λ = 0.01), the Gompertz model (λ = 0.02, solid line: γ = −0.01; dotted line: γ = −0.001; dashed line: γ = 0.002), the Weibull model (λ = 0.02, solid line: γ = 0.4; dotted line: γ = 0.8; dashed line: γ = 1.2; alternative parameterization in gray), the log‐normal model (μ = 5, solid line: σ = 1.5; dotted line: σ = 1; dashed line: σ = 0.75), the log‐logistic model (λ = 0.02, solid line: γ = 0.9; dotted line: γ = 1.1; dashed line: γ = 1.3; alternative parameterization in gray), the generalized gamma model (solid line: μ = 1.1, Q = 1.5, σ = 1.2; dotted line: μ = 1.2, Q = 0.4, σ = 0.5; dashed line: μ = 0.9, Q = 1.2, σ = 1; dot‐dashed line: μ = 0.3, Q = 0.5, σ = 1; Prentice parameterization), and the circadian model (λ = 0.02, period = 360, solid line: amplitude = 0.1, phase = 0; dotted line: amplitude = 0.2, phase = 180; dashed line: amplitude = 0.5, phase = 0)
FIGURE 4Shiny application with (a) slider panel for the hazard function parameters, (b) slider panel for covariate/treatment effect on the hazard function parameters, and (c) the corresponding hazard over time profiles, here illustrated for log‐logistic and log‐normal functions