Mariam Elmegaard Malik1, Charlotte Andersson2, Paul Blanche3,4, Maria D'Souza3, Christian Madelaire3, Bochra Zareini3, Morten Lamberts3, Søren Lund Kristensen5, Naveed Sattar6, John McMurray6, Lars Køber5, Christian Torp-Pedersen7,8, Gunnar Gislason3,8, Morten Schou3. 1. Department of Cardiology, Herlev and Gentofte University Hospital, Cardiovascular Research Unit 1-Post 635, Gentofte Hospitalsvej 1, 2900, Hellerup, Denmark. mariam.elmegaard.malik@regionh.dk. 2. Department of Medicine, Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Boston Medical Center, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA. 3. Department of Cardiology, Herlev and Gentofte University Hospital, Cardiovascular Research Unit 1-Post 635, Gentofte Hospitalsvej 1, 2900, Hellerup, Denmark. 4. Department of Biostatistics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. 5. The Heart Centre, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. 6. BHF Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK. 7. Department of Research, Nordsjællands Hospital, Hillerød, Denmark. 8. Danish Heart Foundation, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Updated guidelines on diabetes recommend targeting sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) at patients at risk of heart failure (HF) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) at those at greater risk of atherothrombotic events. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the risk of different cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and newly established cardiovascular disease. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients with T2D and newly established cardiovascular disease from 1998 to 2016 were identified using Danish healthcare registers and divided into one of four phenotype groups: (1) HF, (2) ischemic heart disease (IHD), (3) transient ischemic stroke (TIA)/ischemic stroke, and (4) peripheral artery disease (PAD). The absolute 5-year risk of the first HF- or atherothrombotic event occurring after inclusion was calculated, along with the risk of death. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was the first event of either HF or an atherothrombotic event (IHD, TIA/ischemic stroke or PAD) in patients with T2D and new-onset cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Of the 37,850 patients included, 40% were female and the median age was 70 years. Patients with HF were at higher 5-year risk of a subsequent HF event (17.9%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.1-18.8%) than an atherothrombotic event (15.8%; 15.0-16.6%). Patients with IHD were at higher risk of a subsequent atherothrombotic event (24.6%; 23.9-25.3%) than developing HF, although the risk of HF was still substantial (10.6%; 10.2-11.1%). Conversely, patients with PAD were at low risk of developing HF (4.4%; 3.8-5.1%) but at high risk of developing an atherothrombotic event (15.9%; 14.9-17.1%). Patients with TIA/ischemic stroke had the lowest risk of HF (3.2%; 2.9-3.6%) and the highest risk of an atherothrombotic event (20.6%; 19.8-21.4). CONCLUSIONS: In T2D, a patient's cardiovascular phenotype can help predict the pattern of future cardiovascular events.
IMPORTANCE: Updated guidelines on diabetes recommend targeting sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) at patients at risk of heart failure (HF) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) at those at greater risk of atherothrombotic events. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the risk of different cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and newly established cardiovascular disease. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients with T2D and newly established cardiovascular disease from 1998 to 2016 were identified using Danish healthcare registers and divided into one of four phenotype groups: (1) HF, (2) ischemic heart disease (IHD), (3) transient ischemic stroke (TIA)/ischemic stroke, and (4) peripheral artery disease (PAD). The absolute 5-year risk of the first HF- or atherothrombotic event occurring after inclusion was calculated, along with the risk of death. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was the first event of either HF or an atherothrombotic event (IHD, TIA/ischemic stroke or PAD) in patients with T2D and new-onset cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Of the 37,850 patients included, 40% were female and the median age was 70 years. Patients with HF were at higher 5-year risk of a subsequent HF event (17.9%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.1-18.8%) than an atherothrombotic event (15.8%; 15.0-16.6%). Patients with IHD were at higher risk of a subsequent atherothrombotic event (24.6%; 23.9-25.3%) than developing HF, although the risk of HF was still substantial (10.6%; 10.2-11.1%). Conversely, patients with PAD were at low risk of developing HF (4.4%; 3.8-5.1%) but at high risk of developing an atherothrombotic event (15.9%; 14.9-17.1%). Patients with TIA/ischemic stroke had the lowest risk of HF (3.2%; 2.9-3.6%) and the highest risk of an atherothrombotic event (20.6%; 19.8-21.4). CONCLUSIONS: In T2D, a patient's cardiovascular phenotype can help predict the pattern of future cardiovascular events.
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