Ibrahim Nassour1, Samer AlMasri2, Jacob C Hodges3, Steven J Hughes1, Amer Zureikat2, Alessandro Paniccia4. 1. Department of Surgery, University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL, USA. 2. Department of Surgery, Division of GI Surgical Oncology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, 497 Scaife Hall, 3550 Terrace Street, Pittsburgh, PA, 15261, USA. 3. Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. 4. Department of Surgery, Division of GI Surgical Oncology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, 497 Scaife Hall, 3550 Terrace Street, Pittsburgh, PA, 15261, USA. panicciaa2@upmc.edu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Drain management algorithms are based on studies that predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) using drain fluid amylase level on POD1 (DFA1). These studies are focused on pancreaticoduodenectomy which is inherently different than distal pancreatectomy. Moreover, the change of DFA between POD1 and POD3 (ΔDFA) is underutilized despite its importance in predicting CR-POPF. We sought to generate a calculator that estimates the risk of CR-POPF following distal pancreatectomy. METHODS: The 2014-2018 pancreas-targeted ACS-NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent elective distal pancreatectomy. Models to predict CR-POPF were constructed using DFA1 with/without ΔDFA. The fittest model was used to construct a calculator. RESULTS: Out of 12,042 distal pancreatectomies, 692 patients met the study's inclusion criteria. The risk of CR-POPF was 15.9% in the included cohort versus 14.8% in the excluded one (P = 0.421). The predictors of the CR-POPF were age, operative time, DFA1, and ΔDFA. Adding ΔDFA decreased the Akaike's information criterion of the model (507.7 vs 544.7)-indicating a significantly better model fit-and improved the cross-validated area under the curve from 0.731 to 0.791. An easy-to-use calculator was created for surgeons to estimate the risk of CR-POPF based on the abovementioned variables. A sensitivity/specificity table was created at various cutoffs to direct clinical decision-making with respect to early drain removal. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of ΔDFA, in addition to DFA1, in predicting CR-POPF. The provided calculator will facilitate predicting CR-POPF and postoperative drain management following distal pancreatectomy.
BACKGROUND: Drain management algorithms are based on studies that predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) using drain fluid amylase level on POD1 (DFA1). These studies are focused on pancreaticoduodenectomy which is inherently different than distal pancreatectomy. Moreover, the change of DFA between POD1 and POD3 (ΔDFA) is underutilized despite its importance in predicting CR-POPF. We sought to generate a calculator that estimates the risk of CR-POPF following distal pancreatectomy. METHODS: The 2014-2018 pancreas-targeted ACS-NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent elective distal pancreatectomy. Models to predict CR-POPF were constructed using DFA1 with/without ΔDFA. The fittest model was used to construct a calculator. RESULTS: Out of 12,042 distal pancreatectomies, 692 patients met the study's inclusion criteria. The risk of CR-POPF was 15.9% in the included cohort versus 14.8% in the excluded one (P = 0.421). The predictors of the CR-POPF were age, operative time, DFA1, and ΔDFA. Adding ΔDFA decreased the Akaike's information criterion of the model (507.7 vs 544.7)-indicating a significantly better model fit-and improved the cross-validated area under the curve from 0.731 to 0.791. An easy-to-use calculator was created for surgeons to estimate the risk of CR-POPF based on the abovementioned variables. A sensitivity/specificity table was created at various cutoffs to direct clinical decision-making with respect to early drain removal. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of ΔDFA, in addition to DFA1, in predicting CR-POPF. The provided calculator will facilitate predicting CR-POPF and postoperative drain management following distal pancreatectomy.
Authors: Joal D Beane; Jeffrey D Borrebach; Amer H Zureikat; E Molly Kilbane; Vanessa M Thompson; Henry A Pitt Journal: Ann Surg Date: 2019-10-28 Impact factor: 12.969