Changes in precipitation patterns can destabilize plant species coexistence via changes in plant-soil feedback.

Climate change can alter species coexistence through changes in biotic interactions. By describing reciprocal interactions between plants and soil microbes, plant-soil feedback (PSF) has emerged as a powerful framework for predicting plant species coexistence and community dynamics, but little is known about how PSF will respond to changing climate conditions. Hence, the context dependency of PSF has recently gained attention. Water availability is a major driver of all biotic interactions, and it is expected that precipitation patterns will change with ongoing climate change. We tested how soil water content affects PSF by conducting a full factorial pairwise PSF experiment using eight plant species common to southeastern United States coastal prairies under three watering treatments. We found coexistence-stabilizing negative PSF at drier-than-average conditions shifted to coexistence-destabilizing positive PSF under wetter-than-average conditions. A simulation model parameterized with the experimental results supports the prediction that more positive PSF accelerates the erosion of diversity within communities while decreasing the predictability in plant community composition. Our results underline the importance of considering environmental context dependency of PSF in light of a rapidly changing climate.