Mohamed Daoudi1, Abdelkrim Outammassine2, Mounia Amane1, Mohamed Hafidi1, Samia Boussaa3,4, Ali Boumezzough1. 1. Microbial Biotechnologies, Agrosciences and Environment Laboratory (BioMAgE), Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, 40000, Marrakesh, Morocco. 2. Laboratory of Microbiology and Virology, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cadi Ayyad University, 40000, Marrakesh, Morocco. 3. Microbial Biotechnologies, Agrosciences and Environment Laboratory (BioMAgE), Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, 40000, Marrakesh, Morocco. samiaboussaa@gmail.com. 4. Higher Institute of Nursing and Technical Health Occupations (ISPITS), 10000, Rabat, Morocco. samiaboussaa@gmail.com.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Leishmaniases are a vector-borne disease, re-emerging in several regions of the world posing a burden on public health. As other vector-borne diseases, climate change is a crucial factor affecting the evolution of leishmaniasis. In Morocco, anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is widespread geographically as many foci across the country, mainly in central Morocco. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ACL due to Leishmania tropica, and its corresponding vector Phlebotomus sergenti in Morocco. METHODS: Using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) tool, the estimated geographical range shift of L. tropica and P. sergenti by 2050 was projected under two Representative's Concentration's Pathways (RCPs) to be 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively. P. sergenti records were obtained from field collections of the laboratory team and previously published entomological observations, while, epidemiological data for L. tropica were obtained from Moroccan Ministry of Health reports. RESULTS: Our models under present-day conditions indicated a probable expansion for L. tropica as well as for its vector in Morocco, P. sergenti. It showed a concentrated distribution in the west-central and northern area of Morocco. Future predictions anticipate expansion into areas not identified as suitable for P. sergenti under present conditions, particularly in northern and southeastern areas of Morocco. L. tropica is also expected to have high expansion in southern areas for the next 30 years in Morocco. CONCLUSION: This indicates that L. tropica and P. sergenti will continue to find suitable climate conditions in the future. A higher abundance of P. sergenti may indeed result in a higher transmission risk of ACL. This information is essential in developing a control plan for ACL in Morocco. However, future investigations on L. tropica reservoirs are needed to confirm our predictions.
BACKGROUND: Leishmaniases are a vector-borne disease, re-emerging in several regions of the world posing a burden on public health. As other vector-borne diseases, climate change is a crucial factor affecting the evolution of leishmaniasis. In Morocco, anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is widespread geographically as many foci across the country, mainly in central Morocco. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ACL due to Leishmania tropica, and its corresponding vector Phlebotomus sergenti in Morocco. METHODS: Using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) tool, the estimated geographical range shift of L. tropica and P. sergenti by 2050 was projected under two Representative's Concentration's Pathways (RCPs) to be 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively. P. sergenti records were obtained from field collections of the laboratory team and previously published entomological observations, while, epidemiological data for L. tropica were obtained from Moroccan Ministry of Health reports. RESULTS: Our models under present-day conditions indicated a probable expansion for L. tropica as well as for its vector in Morocco, P. sergenti. It showed a concentrated distribution in the west-central and northern area of Morocco. Future predictions anticipate expansion into areas not identified as suitable for P. sergenti under present conditions, particularly in northern and southeastern areas of Morocco. L. tropica is also expected to have high expansion in southern areas for the next 30 years in Morocco. CONCLUSION: This indicates that L. tropica and P. sergenti will continue to find suitable climate conditions in the future. A higher abundance of P. sergenti may indeed result in a higher transmission risk of ACL. This information is essential in developing a control plan for ACL in Morocco. However, future investigations on L. tropica reservoirs are needed to confirm our predictions.
Authors: Idris Mhaidi; Sofia El Kacem; Mouad Ait Kbaich; Adil El Hamouchi; M'hammed Sarih; Khadija Akarid; Meryem Lemrani Journal: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Date: 2018-03-02
Authors: Lahouari Bounoua; Kholoud Kahime; Leila Houti; Tara Blakey; Kristie L Ebi; Ping Zhang; Marc L Imhoff; Kurtis J Thome; Claire Dudek; Salah A Sahabi; Mohammed Messouli; Baghdad Makhlouf; Abderahmane El Laamrani; Ali Boumezzough Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2013-07-31 Impact factor: 3.390