Jie Yin1, Qicong Zhu2, Kai Zhang1, Wentao Gao1, Junli Wu1, Zipeng Lu1, Kuirong Jiang1, Yi Miao1. 1. Pancreas Center, The First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. 2. Department of Gastrointestinal and Pancreatic Surgery, Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital, People's Hospital of Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the major complication following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). We sought to develop and validate a risk prediction model for POPF after PD with the aim of determining personal risk probability and proposing a novel strategy for intraoperative placement and/or early-removal of prophylactic drainage. METHODS: Data from 993 patients undergoing PD from January 2012 to December 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were randomly assigned to either training cohort or validation cohort. A nomogram was formulated based on the results from multivariable regression model for prediction of POPF. Internal and external validation were carried out with calibration plot respectively. RESULTS: POPF occurred in 162 (16.3%) patients. The final pre-/intra-operative prediction model included alanine transaminase level [odds ratio (OR) 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.00, P=0.023], combined portal-superior mesenteric vein resection (OR 0.22, 95% CI: 0.05-0.95, P=0.043), pancreatic duct diameter (OR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.11-1.96, P=0.007), intraoperative colloid infusion (OR 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00-1.00, P=0.001), pathology (OR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.09-2.66, P=0.018). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.667 in the training cohort and 0.621 in the validation cohort. The final postoperative prediction model included pancreatic duct diameter (OR 1.58, 95% CI: 1.14-2.19, P=0.006), intraoperative colloid infusion (OR 2.52, 95% CI: 1.26-5.06, P=0.009), drainage fluid amylase on postoperative day 3 (POD3) (OR 4.70, 95% CI: 3.30-6.70, P<0.001), and neutrophil count on POD3 (OR 2.83, 95% CI: 1.63-4.93, P<0.001). The AUC was 0.809 in the training cohort and 0.797 in the validation cohort. Based on these variables, two nomogram prediction models were developed respectively. The calibration plot of the two models showed a good correlation between the expected risk and the actual risk in the low-risk range. Our risk-stratified strategy for drain management according to nomograms may be beneficial for 34.5% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our study formulated and validated two nomogram models for predicting POPF that performed particularly well in the low-risk range. This tool may allow surgeons to propose a risk stratified strategy for intraoperative drain placement and early drain removal, which may be beneficial for a substantial proportion of patients. 2022 Gland Surgery. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the major complication following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). We sought to develop and validate a risk prediction model for POPF after PD with the aim of determining personal risk probability and proposing a novel strategy for intraoperative placement and/or early-removal of prophylactic drainage. METHODS: Data from 993 patients undergoing PD from January 2012 to December 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were randomly assigned to either training cohort or validation cohort. A nomogram was formulated based on the results from multivariable regression model for prediction of POPF. Internal and external validation were carried out with calibration plot respectively. RESULTS: POPF occurred in 162 (16.3%) patients. The final pre-/intra-operative prediction model included alanine transaminase level [odds ratio (OR) 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.00, P=0.023], combined portal-superior mesenteric vein resection (OR 0.22, 95% CI: 0.05-0.95, P=0.043), pancreatic duct diameter (OR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.11-1.96, P=0.007), intraoperative colloid infusion (OR 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00-1.00, P=0.001), pathology (OR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.09-2.66, P=0.018). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.667 in the training cohort and 0.621 in the validation cohort. The final postoperative prediction model included pancreatic duct diameter (OR 1.58, 95% CI: 1.14-2.19, P=0.006), intraoperative colloid infusion (OR 2.52, 95% CI: 1.26-5.06, P=0.009), drainage fluid amylase on postoperative day 3 (POD3) (OR 4.70, 95% CI: 3.30-6.70, P<0.001), and neutrophil count on POD3 (OR 2.83, 95% CI: 1.63-4.93, P<0.001). The AUC was 0.809 in the training cohort and 0.797 in the validation cohort. Based on these variables, two nomogram prediction models were developed respectively. The calibration plot of the two models showed a good correlation between the expected risk and the actual risk in the low-risk range. Our risk-stratified strategy for drain management according to nomograms may be beneficial for 34.5% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our study formulated and validated two nomogram models for predicting POPF that performed particularly well in the low-risk range. This tool may allow surgeons to propose a risk stratified strategy for intraoperative drain placement and early drain removal, which may be beneficial for a substantial proportion of patients. 2022 Gland Surgery. All rights reserved.
Authors: Claudio Bassi; Christos Dervenis; Giovanni Butturini; Abe Fingerhut; Charles Yeo; Jakob Izbicki; John Neoptolemos; Michael Sarr; William Traverso; Marcus Buchler Journal: Surgery Date: 2005-07 Impact factor: 3.982
Authors: Aart A van der Wilt; Mariëlle M E Coolsen; Ignace H J T de Hingh; Gert Jan van der Wilt; Hans Groenewoud; Cornelis H C Dejong; Ronald M van Dam Journal: HPB (Oxford) Date: 2012-11-30 Impact factor: 3.647
Authors: F Ausania; C P Snowden; J M Prentis; L R Holmes; B C Jaques; S A White; J J French; D M Manas; R M Charnley Journal: Br J Surg Date: 2012-07-24 Impact factor: 6.939
Authors: Benjamin C Miller; John D Christein; Stephen W Behrman; Jeffrey A Drebin; Wande B Pratt; Mark P Callery; Charles M Vollmer Journal: J Gastrointest Surg Date: 2013-09-04 Impact factor: 3.452
Authors: Giovanni Ramacciato; Paolo Mercantini; Niccolò Petrucciani; Giuseppe R Nigri; Andrea Kazemi; Mirko Muroni; Massimo Del Gaudio; Albert Balesh; Matteo Cescon; Alessandro Cucchetti; Matteo Ravaioli Journal: Am Surg Date: 2011-03 Impact factor: 0.688
Authors: David Yu Greenblatt; Kaitlyn J Kelly; Victoria Rajamanickam; Yin Wan; Todd Hanson; Robert Rettammel; Emily R Winslow; Clifford S Cho; Sharon M Weber Journal: Ann Surg Oncol Date: 2011-02-20 Impact factor: 5.344