Literature DB >> 35175463

Back to the Roots: A Discrete Kermack-McKendrick Model Adapted to Covid-19.

Matthias Kreck1, Erhard Scholz2.   

Abstract

A widely used tool for analysing the Covid-19 pandemic is the standard SIR model. It seems often to be used as a black box, not taking into account that this model was derived as a special case of the seminal Kermack-McKendrick theory from 1927. This is our starting point. We explain the setup of the Kermack-McKendrick theory (passing to a discrete approach) and use medical information for specializing to a model called by us an adapted K-McK-model. It includes effects of vaccination, mass testing and mutants. We demonstrate the use of the model by applying it to the development in Germany and show, among others things, that a comparatively mild intervention reducing the time until quarantine by one day would lead to a drastic improvement.
© 2022. The Author(s).

Entities:  

Keywords:  Discrete epidemiological model; Kermack–McKendrick

Mesh:

Year:  2022        PMID: 35175463      PMCID: PMC8853305          DOI: 10.1007/s11538-022-00994-9

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Bull Math Biol        ISSN: 0092-8240            Impact factor:   1.758


  12 in total

1.  On the formulation of epidemic models (an appraisal of Kermack and McKendrick).

Authors:  D Breda; O Diekmann; W F de Graaf; A Pugliese; R Vermiglio
Journal:  J Biol Dyn       Date:  2012-08-17       Impact factor: 2.179

2.  Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019.

Authors:  Roman Wölfel; Victor M Corman; Wolfgang Guggemos; Michael Seilmaier; Sabine Zange; Marcel A Müller; Daniela Niemeyer; Terry C Jones; Patrick Vollmar; Camilla Rothe; Michael Hoelscher; Tobias Bleicker; Sebastian Brünink; Julia Schneider; Rosina Ehmann; Katrin Zwirglmaier; Christian Drosten; Clemens Wendtner
Journal:  Nature       Date:  2020-04-01       Impact factor: 49.962

Review 3.  Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future.

Authors:  Fred Brauer
Journal:  Infect Dis Model       Date:  2017-02-04

4.  Memory is key in capturing COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics.

Authors:  Mircea T Sofonea; Bastien Reyné; Baptiste Elie; Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse; Christian Selinger; Yannis Michalakis; Samuel Alizon
Journal:  Epidemics       Date:  2021-04-27       Impact factor: 4.396

5.  Early assessment of diffusion and possible expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7, variant of concern 202012/01) in France, January to March 2021.

Authors:  Alexandre Gaymard; Paolo Bosetti; Adeline Feri; Gregory Destras; Vincent Enouf; Alessio Andronico; Sonia Burrel; Sylvie Behillil; Claire Sauvage; Antonin Bal; Florence Morfin; Sylvie Van Der Werf; Laurence Josset; François Blanquart; Bruno Coignard; Simon Cauchemez; Bruno Lina
Journal:  Euro Surveill       Date:  2021-03

6.  Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.

Authors:  Sam Abbott; Rosanna C Barnard; Christopher I Jarvis; Adam J Kucharski; James D Munday; Carl A B Pearson; Timothy W Russell; Damien C Tully; Alex D Washburne; Tom Wenseleers; Nicholas G Davies; Amy Gimma; William Waites; Kerry L M Wong; Kevin van Zandvoort; Justin D Silverman; Karla Diaz-Ordaz; Ruth Keogh; Rosalind M Eggo; Sebastian Funk; Mark Jit; Katherine E Atkins; W John Edmunds
Journal:  Science       Date:  2021-03-03       Impact factor: 63.714

7.  Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing.

Authors:  Luca Ferretti; Chris Wymant; David Bonsall; Christophe Fraser; Michelle Kendall; Lele Zhao; Anel Nurtay; Lucie Abeler-Dörner; Michael Parker
Journal:  Science       Date:  2020-03-31       Impact factor: 47.728

8.  Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections.

Authors:  Hiroshi Nishiura; Natalie M Linton; Andrei R Akhmetzhanov
Journal:  Int J Infect Dis       Date:  2020-03-04       Impact factor: 3.623

9.  Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions.

Authors:  Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; F Paul Spitzner; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto
Journal:  Science       Date:  2020-05-15       Impact factor: 47.728

10.  Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course.

Authors:  Terry C Jones; Guido Biele; Barbara Mühlemann; Talitha Veith; Julia Schneider; Jörn Beheim-Schwarzbach; Tobias Bleicker; Julia Tesch; Marie Luisa Schmidt; Leif Erik Sander; Florian Kurth; Peter Menzel; Rolf Schwarzer; Marta Zuchowski; Jörg Hofmann; Andi Krumbholz; Angela Stein; Anke Edelmann; Victor Max Corman; Christian Drosten
Journal:  Science       Date:  2021-05-25       Impact factor: 63.714

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  1 in total

1.  Proposal of a population wide genome-based testing for Covid-19.

Authors:  Hans Lehrach; Jon Curtis; Bodo Lange; Lesley A Ogilvie; Richard Gauss; Christoph Steininger; Erhard Scholz; Matthias Kreck
Journal:  Sci Rep       Date:  2022-04-04       Impact factor: 4.379

  1 in total

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