| Literature DB >> 35175463 |
Matthias Kreck1, Erhard Scholz2.
Abstract
A widely used tool for analysing the Covid-19 pandemic is the standard SIR model. It seems often to be used as a black box, not taking into account that this model was derived as a special case of the seminal Kermack-McKendrick theory from 1927. This is our starting point. We explain the setup of the Kermack-McKendrick theory (passing to a discrete approach) and use medical information for specializing to a model called by us an adapted K-McK-model. It includes effects of vaccination, mass testing and mutants. We demonstrate the use of the model by applying it to the development in Germany and show, among others things, that a comparatively mild intervention reducing the time until quarantine by one day would lead to a drastic improvement.Entities:
Keywords: Discrete epidemiological model; Kermack–McKendrick
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35175463 PMCID: PMC8853305 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-022-00994-9
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Bull Math Biol ISSN: 0092-8240 Impact factor: 1.758